Manifold Creator
jackson polack
@jacksonpolack
Markets by jackson polack
First Trump / Harris Debate prop bets
$2.8M1,378 tradersResolved
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Will Benny Gantz leave Israel's government, after threatening to, before Jun 18?
$707K172 tradersResolved
99%
Will OpenAI become significantly less closed source as a result of the leadership transition?
$498K101 tradersResolved
0%
Will Kamala Harris go on the Joe Rogan Experience before the 2024 election?
$354K690 tradersResolved
0%
On what days will Destiny stream this week?
$215K23 tradersResolved
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Was the Trump shooter a progressive, democrat, leftist, or otherwise lean left?
$214K349 tradersResolved
9%
Will Twitter be referred to as X more than Twitter in my experience in six months?
$201K16 tradersResolved
0%
Will Kamala Harris win the debate against Trump? (based on polls)
$172K269 tradersResolved
99%
Once the dust settles, will I believe "The Agency" is making good use of their time and money?
$170K20 tradersResolved
6%
What will I think about the "Bet On Love" show?
$151K14 tradersResolved
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twitter notifications back today?
$141K13 tradersResolved
99%
Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the three months after release?
$135K600 tradersResolved
9%
Which party will win the US presidential election X which will win popular vote?
$123K130 tradersResolved
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Whose performance at the VP debate will I personally like better? (Vance YES,orthogonal to policy preferences)
$118K41 tradersResolved
65%
Will I have problems with twitter notifications again before Friday?
$115K14 tradersResolved
1%
Incentive market: Will I do <thing> every day this week?
$114K44 tradersResolved
96%
Will xAI open source Grok within a month, before the end of Apr 11? (Musk tweeted)
$111K18 tradersResolved
100%
Will the Taiwan earthquake halt chip production at a TSMC facility for a month or more?
$104K22 tradersResolved
0%
Will xAI open source Grok within a week, before the end of March 17? (Musk tweeted)
$102K16 tradersResolved
100%
Was the Trump shooter a republican or right-winger?
$101K275 tradersResolved
93%
test market
$100K1 tradersResolved
19%
How will Biden's first post-debate interview on ABC go relative to concerns about his age and mental status?
$99K99 tradersResolved
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How many deaths from Iran attacks today?
$96K62 tradersResolved
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Which of these people will Destiny talk to before the end of 2024?
$96K79 tradersResolved
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Did Nikita actually just fix (part of) twitter's bot problem? (in my subjective experience)
$94K9 tradersResolved
1%
Who will I think wins today's NYC Mayor debate? (Zohran=yes, cuomo=no, debate skill not correctness, fun market)
$90K8 tradersResolved
99%
Will it appear that the openai.com GPT-4.5 turbo blogpost that appeared in DuckDuckGo results was real?
$79K63 tradersResolved
4%
If Trump and Biden don't debate, who will chicken out?
$77K132 tradersResolved
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Will the scientific consensus that the universe's expansion is accelerating end before the end of 2030?
$76K94 tradersopen
8%
Did the trump shooter have any diagnosed mental illness?
$72K125 tradersResolved
9%
Will we learn that Joe Biden has Parkinson's disease before the end of 2024?
$63K139 tradersResolved
1%
Will proof emerge that OpenAI's "Sky" voice was trained on Scarlett Johansson's voice?
$55K65 tradersResolved
1%
Will Hamas release more hostages by November 17?
$54K41 tradersResolved
0%
If Trump wins, will RFK Jr become his first HHS secretary?
$53K127 tradersResolved
100%
Will I think one of Destiny's opponents was overall more correct than Destiny after watching the Jones Jan 6th debate?
$50K4 tradersResolved
0%
Who was behind the Olympics train line arson attacks?
$43K222 tradersResolved
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Why was Sam Altman removed from the CEO position of OpenAI? (Unlinked)
$42K40 tradersResolved
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Will Beff participate in a voice debate about AI risk with Connor Leahy before the end of 2024?
$42K14 tradersResolved
100%
What odds will Nate Silver's model give Harris against Trump a week after those odds are released?
$41K79 tradersResolved
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Will Mark Zuckerberg endorse Trump for the 2024 presidential election?
$38K49 tradersResolved
2%