Manifold Creator
Ian Shea
@ian
Markets by Ian Shea
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025?
$150K115 tradersResolved
1%
We sell >2x the boosts now that we add 5k liquidity to the AMM?
$137K117 tradersResolved
99%
ChatGPT reaches 1 billion monthly active (human) users in 2025?
$116K381 tradersclosed
30%
Will we fix our server problems by 7pm PST Tuesday Oct 15th?
$106K95 tradersResolved
17%
Will we fix our server problems by 7pm PST Thursday Oct 17th?
$105K89 tradersResolved
21%
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
$95K106 tradersResolved
—
What topics on Manifold will have at least 500 DAU at end of January 2025?
$94K17 tradersResolved
—
What will the domain name for our politics site be on May 1st?
$74K143 tradersResolved
—
If we create a normie-friendly, simplified Manifold app, will it have >$2 million in purchases 6 months after release?
$46K75 tradersResolved
5%
Will manifold raise money by the end of March 2025?
$38K34 tradersResolved
1%
Will this market get more than 20 unique bettors via discord reactions?
$34K35 tradersResolved
100%
Who will win Best Commenter at the Big Manifest Awards Ceremony?
$33K19 tradersResolved
—
First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by May 1st 2025
$33K69 tradersResolved
1%
Will Apple sell more than 500k Vision Pro headsets before January 20th, 2025?
$30K104 tradersResolved
8%
First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by February 1st 2025
$28K71 tradersResolved
1%
How many H5N1 bird flu human cases will be confirmed in the US in 2025?
$23K37 tradersResolved
—
Will we unban @Relay?
$23K36 tradersResolved
1%
Will we find that the dark forest theory of the universe is true?
$21K14 tradersopen
5%
In how many days from March 5th will anyone be able to create numeric markets?
$20K54 tradersResolved
—
Views on the mnx launch announcement post within 48 hours?
$19K43 tradersResolved
—
Who will win Best Trader at the Big Manifest Awards Ceremony?
$17K15 tradersResolved
—
Another American cartel leader killed/captured before end of march?
$16K116 tradersResolved
4%
Israel strike on Iran by Feb 1
$16K39 tradersResolved
1%
Mexico City (CDMX) above "Exercise increased caution" travel advisory by mid march?
$15K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will China launch a blockade of 1+ Taiwanese port for 10+ days in 2025?
$15K31 tradersResolved
1%
When will OpenAI release GPT-5?
$14K39 tradersResolved
—
Who will win Best Creator at the Big Manifest Awards Ceremony?
$14K9 tradersResolved
—
Will Apple sell more than 750k Vision Pro headsets before January 20th, 2025?
$14K48 tradersResolved
2%
Will MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest?
$13K70 tradersopen
26%
Will definitive evidence emerge that Justin Trudeau is actually Fidel Castro’s biological son?
$12K74 tradersopen
5%
What metric is most advantageous for Manifold Markets to track in order to monitor success of the platform?
$12K23 tradersResolved
—
How many numeric markets will be made in the next 7 days ?
$11K6 tradersResolved
—
Will multiple choice questions have multi line graphs by the end of September?
$11K10 tradersResolved
100%
Will stock markets include limit orders by June 2023?
$10K22 tradersResolved
0%
upon filing my name change forms, my new middle name will be:
$10K61 tradersclosed
—
Will unique trader bonuses return by next Friday, 10/4?
$10K16 tradersResolved
99%
How many days will this numeric type last?
$10K32 tradersResolved
—
U.S. Congress approves funding for Manhattan Project-style AI initiative by June 30, 2025
$10K17 tradersResolved
1%
Will we add periodic-filling limit orders in 2024?
$9K33 tradersResolved
44%
Will Trump visit Taiwan in 2025?
$9K23 tradersResolved
1%