Manifold Creator
hyperion
@hyperion
Markets by hyperion
Will any group develop a GPT-4 competitor of comparable capability (text) by Oct. 2023
$23K88 tradersResolved
2%
Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?
$12K37 tradersopen
1%
Will the US Government issue a statement criticising the Code of Practice of the EU AI Act in 2025?
$8K33 tradersResolved
92%
Louis Castricato Stock (Permanent)
$8K19 tradersopen
—
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
$6K94 tradersopen
60%
Will Google Gemini perform better (text) than GPT-4?
$6K46 tradersResolved
55%
Will DoNotPay be prosecuted for using their robot lawyer in court?
$6K14 tradersResolved
2%
EleutherAI Stock (Permanent)
$4K33 tradersopen
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If there is another well-recognized letter on AI risk by May 31, 2023, will Elon Musk sign it?
$2K16 tradersResolved
5%
Will Elon Musk ask Joe Rogan to join the to the Twitter content moderation council?
$72816 tradersResolved
15%
Will Sholto Douglas join Anthropic before 2026?
$3854 tradersResolved
78%
Anish Upadhayay Stock (Permanent)
$2534 tradersResolved
76%