Manifold Creator

Greg Rosenthal

@gregrosent

Markets by Greg Rosenthal

Which team will sign OG Anunoby in the 2024 NBA offseason?

$9K8 tradersResolved

Who/what do Manifold users think they could beat (unarmed) in a fight? [Add responses.]

$8K60 tradersResolved

Which NBA players will be traded by the 2024 trade deadline?

$7K12 tradersResolved

Will I have a girlfriend before I turn 35, and if so how will we meet?

$6K53 tradersopen

Will GOODY-2 say "rationalussy" before Jimmy Carter's funeral?

$4K1 tradersResolved
96%

Which party will The Economist endorse in the next UK general election (after July 4, 2024)?

$3K10 tradersResolved

How many NBA championships will each team win in 2025-2034?

$3K15 tradersopen

Is the preprint "Quantum Algorithms for Lattice Problems" accurate?

$2K9 tradersResolved
2%

Will Masai Ujiri be president of the Toronto Raptors from now until June 27, 2024?

$7314 tradersResolved
99%

What fraction of likes on comments on the "Popularity contest" bounty will be on comments that offer rewards for likes?

$3758 tradersResolved
55%

Which Hogwarts house will Manifold sort Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres into?

$2269 tradersResolved

Edit the description of this market

$303 tradersopen
47%

Could you (unarmed) beat a medium dog in a fight?

$013 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat a large dog in a fight?

$017 tradersResolved

Hölder-like inequality for Schatten norms

$00 tradersopen

Could you (unarmed) beat 1 million mosquitos in a small room in a fight?

$032 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat a beehive in a fight?

$015 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat a cobra in a fight?

$015 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat a typical stormtrooper (armed and armored) in a fight?

$019 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat a clone of yourself in a fight? Clone isn't allowed to kick, you aren't allowed to punch.

$015 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat SCP-4739 (Alaster Grey) in a fight?

$06 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat a house cat in a fight?

$018 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat a clone of yourself with half your reaction time but only half your strength in a fight?

$013 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat smallpox in a fight?

$023 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat Richard Hanania in a fight?

$015 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat a goose in a fight?

$015 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat Eliezer Yudkowsky in a fight?

$026 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat 1kg of fire ants (poured on the head) in a fight?

$019 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat Timothée Chalamet in a fight?

$017 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat a T-rex in a fight?

$021 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat Elon Musk in a fight?

$021 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat a crocodile in a fight?

$015 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat YOUR MOM in a fight?

$023 tradersResolved

Which Hogwarts house would you sort Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres into?

$06 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat Kanye West in a fight?

$021 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat three Asian hornets in a fight?

$014 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat another randomly selected animal (could be a leech, could be a blue whale) in a fight?

$016 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat a grizzly bear in a fight?

$021 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat a pterodactyl in a fight?

$019 tradersResolved

Could you (unarmed) beat a kangaroo in a fight?

$014 tradersResolved