Manifold Creator
Jack Galler
@gallerdude
Markets by Jack Galler
Will Trump get a third term in office?
$27K82 tradersopen
5%
When will GPT-4.5 (Orion) be released
$21K41 tradersResolved
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Will GPT-5 be GPT-5o?
$18K55 tradersResolved
96%
When will OpenAI's o3 model release to ChatGPT Plus users?
$15K56 tradersResolved
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When will OpenAI's o3 model release to ChatGPT Pro users?
$14K53 tradersResolved
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Will "Claude Plays Pokémon" Get Four Gym Badges
$12K51 tradersResolved
3%
What will the next flagship OpenAI model be called?
$11K18 tradersResolved
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Will there be a new numbered, mainline Star Wars movie before 2026?
$10K30 tradersResolved
1%
What will be true of o3?
$7K56 tradersResolved
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Will there be a new major LLM released by OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2024?
$7K49 tradersResolved
85%
What games will launch with the Nintendo Switch 2
$7K21 tradersResolved
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Humanoid robots walking down the street by EOY2035?
$4K9 tradersopen
94%
What will OpenAI announce as part of the 12 days of Shipmas?
$4K19 tradersResolved
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Will there be seven or more classic-style Zelda dungeons in Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom?
$4K13 tradersResolved
11%
What will the Metacritic score of GTA 6 be?
$3K17 tradersopen
92%
Is MCU Dr. Doom a Tony Stark variant?
$3K31 tradersopen
61%
GPT-5 score on GPQA Diamond?
$3K17 tradersResolved
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Will CGP Grey write a book?
$2K43 tradersopen
61%
GPT-5 score on Aider polyglot?
$2K7 tradersResolved
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GPT-5 score on SimpleBench?
$1K8 tradersResolved
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What will be true of GPT-4.1
$83011 tradersResolved
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GPT-5 Score on BrowseComp?
$4084 tradersResolved
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