Manifold Creator
fornever
@fornever
Markets by fornever
will new gpt-4o-2024-08-06 rank #1 on LMSYS leaderboards?
$37K39 tradersResolved
12%
GOLD/MANA (MANA inflation protection fund)
$12K20 tradersopen
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Polymarket Mirrors
$8K8 tradersResolved
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will stranger return me $53?
$5K44 tradersResolved
1%
War declaration between Iran and Israel(or US)?
$3K31 tradersResolved
1%
What score will OpenAI O1 model achieve on the ARC-AGI challenge?
$3K10 tradersResolved
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Will openAI cancel o5 model?
$1K11 tradersopen
98%
Fed decision in May?
$1K11 tradersResolved
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Marco Rubio becomes president of Cuba before 2029
$1K13 tradersopen
1%
Alibaba $BABA delisted from NYSE in 2025?
$1K10 tradersResolved
1%
Will Manifold Markets introduce leveraged betting by Dec 31, 2025?
$1K8 tradersResolved
4%
Total Intel share purchases by US Gov before 2026?
$1K10 tradersResolved
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Will Intel or Amd announce an Arm-based desktop processor before 1 Jan 2026?
$9709 tradersResolved
1%
Circle (CRCL) Market Cap 2 Days After IPO?
$8861 tradersResolved
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How Many Countries Sign Tariff Deals with US by End of July 2025?
$81015 tradersResolved
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Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027?
$7955 tradersopen
99%
Quantum programming language enters GitHub's or Stack Overflow's Top 10 before 2029
$73912 tradersopen
7%
Market will be resolved to square of number of traders modulo 100
$71514 tradersResolved
96%
When will LLMs be able to generate formal proof for sudoku solver?
$6906 tradersopen
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Market will be resolved to num_traders^2 mod 101
$63110 tradersResolved
96%
Will China unban Google in 2025?
$61010 tradersResolved
2%
Will manifold allow to bet on two or more markets at once before end of 2025?
$5954 tradersResolved
2%
will top LLM models use formal methods by EOY 2024?
$5216 tradersResolved
3%
Will China completely ban Windows OS before 2026?
$49913 tradersResolved
3%
Market will be resolved to round(100*abs(sin(num_traders)))
$41310 tradersResolved
17%
Intel reaches $25 again this year?
$3951 tradersResolved
4%
What ELO will new Claude Sonnet 3.5 get in LMArena?
$3098 tradersResolved
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This market will be resolved according to the trader with the largest holdings
$2397 tradersResolved
74%
When Ajapnyak metro station of Yerevan will be constructed?
$1801 tradersopen
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will meta release Llama 3.3 models before Llama 4?
$1454 tradersResolved
80%
When there will be OS which able to run proof-carrying programs?
$1322 tradersopen
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Will I be hired by Siemens Armenia?
$973 tradersResolved
71%
When Will 2.5¢ Be Stolen from My Office Kitchen?
$655 tradersResolved
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will particle reach to 0(No) or 10(Yes)?
$444 tradersResolved
34%