How many markets has ersatz created on Manifold?

ersatz has created 22 prediction markets on Manifold with $190K in total volume.

Manifold Creator

ersatz

@ersatz

Markets by ersatz

Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?

$96K223 tradersResolved

99%

Was Sam Altman being fired as CEO of OpenAI by the board related to allegations of sexual misconduct by his sister?

$41K123 tradersResolved

Will GPT-5 be able to replace the average web developer?

$18K84 tradersResolved

10%

Will it be established that FTX used their clients' funds as collateral to take out loans?

$9K71 tradersResolved

Will reliable sources report that Twitter is struggling to hire software engineers between January 2023 and June 2023?

$6K77 tradersResolved

18%

When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?

$2K21 tradersopen

—

Doom if AGI by 2040?

$1K9 tradersopen

35%

Will Pope Leo XIV issues an encyclical specifically addressing artificial intelligence before 2030?

$1K20 tradersResolved

99%

Will Nvidia reach $300 before the summer?

$1K4 tradersResolved

99%

Will the Apple M3 have dedicated silicon for the ray tracing workflow?

$85714 tradersResolved

90%

Will there be an M3 Ultra chip configuration with 256 GB of unified memory?

$7028 tradersResolved

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

$6003 tradersopen

32%

Will Russia join NATO before 2050?

$59411 tradersopen

15%

Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?

$42016 tradersResolved

11%

What will be the name of the next version of macOS after Ventura?

$37315 tradersResolved

—

Joel Habener wins the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine before 2030 for isolating and characterizing GLP-1

$1949 tradersResolved

47%

How much will Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny make at the box office?

$1436 tradersResolved

12%

Will Chinese antitrust authorities block Intel's acquisition of Tower Semiconductor?

$1046 tradersResolved

44%

Among GitHub Copilot users, some fraction of their code is written by themselves and some generated by the model. In any population of users, what will be the highest fraction generated by the model as reported by a credible source by 2025?

$565 tradersResolved

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ersatz

Markets by ersatz

Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?

Was Sam Altman being fired as CEO of OpenAI by the board related to allegations of sexual misconduct by his sister?

Will GPT-5 be able to replace the average web developer?

Will it be established that FTX used their clients' funds as collateral to take out loans?

Will reliable sources report that Twitter is struggling to hire software engineers between January 2023 and June 2023?

Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?

Will the campaign to redefine the concept of "sex" on Wikipedia be successful?

What will be the name of the next version of macOS after Sonoma?

When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?

Doom if AGI by 2040?

Will Pope Leo XIV issues an encyclical specifically addressing artificial intelligence before 2030?

Will Nvidia reach $300 before the summer?

Will the Apple M3 have dedicated silicon for the ray tracing workflow?

Will there be an M3 Ultra chip configuration with 256 GB of unified memory?

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

Will Russia join NATO before 2050?

Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?

What will be the name of the next version of macOS after Ventura?

Joel Habener wins the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine before 2030 for isolating and characterizing GLP-1

How much will Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny make at the box office?

Will Chinese antitrust authorities block Intel's acquisition of Tower Semiconductor?

Among GitHub Copilot users, some fraction of their code is written by themselves and some generated by the model. In any population of users, what will be the highest fraction generated by the model as reported by a credible source by 2025?