Manifold Creator
Elf
@elf
Markets by Elf
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 this summer (2024) as BusinessInsider claims?
$58K220 tradersResolved
1%
Which stocks will outperform the S&P 500 during 2025?📊 📈💰🤑💳
$36K97 tradersResolved
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Will Fallout (2024 TV series) have a Metacritic score higher than 75?
$18K26 tradersResolved
1%
Will Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating go above 42% before the Election? 🇺🇸🗳️🗽
$15K18 tradersResolved
99%
What will the monthly subscription price of OpenAI’s o3 and o3-mini cost at launch? 🤖🤑🔥💰
$14K29 tradersResolved
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Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸
$14K120 tradersopen
31%
If Trump Wins, will Elon Musk have an advisory role in his administration? 🇺🇸🗽🗳️🌎
$14K66 tradersResolved
99%
Will Joe Biden win the US Presidential Election if there are no rate cuts from the Federal Reserve? 🇺🇸🏦📈
$13K17 tradersResolved
3%
Will Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating go below 38% before the Election? 🇺🇸🗳️🗽
$10K26 tradersResolved
99%
Will planet k2-18b be confirmed to contain a major sign of Alien Life: DMS (dimethyl sulphide)
$10K50 tradersopen
8%
Will Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating go below 37% before the Election? 🇺🇸🗳️🗽
$10K18 tradersResolved
99%
Will OpenAI be one of the top 5 most valuable companies before 2040?
$9K57 tradersopen
39%
Will Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating go below 35% before the Election?
$9K27 tradersResolved
2%
Did NASA’s Perseverance Rover discover Fossilized Life on Mars (Cheyava Falls)? 👽🚀🪐🛰️🩻🪨
$8K42 tradersopen
31%
What will Donald Trump's Truth Social Stock be worth when he is allowed to sell (~ September 2024)? 🗽🦅🇺🇸💲🟠
$8K36 tradersResolved
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Has Elon Musk’s Tesla scrapped plans to build Model 2 (low cost ~$25k car) as Reuters claims?
$8K48 tradersResolved
98%
Will analysis of the interstellar IM1 Meteor prove to be of Artificial (Alien) Origin?
$7K23 tradersResolved
1%
When will Lab Grown Meat become cheaper than regular meat? 🧪 🥼 🥩 🍖
$6K83 tradersopen
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Will Tesla’s upcoming RoboTaxi have an optional steering wheel or pedals? 🚗⚡️🔋🔌🤖🦾
$4K24 tradersResolved
1%
When will OpenAI become a trillion dollar company?
$4K25 tradersopen
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Will a human walk on the moon this decade (2020s)?🚀🛰️🧑🚀☄️ 🌕🌓
$3K24 tradersopen
58%
Will a Big Tech Stock (Meta, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft) have a higher return than Bitcoin over the 2020s? 🤑💰🔑
$3K31 tradersopen
84%
Is Vivek Ramaswamy kicked out / leaving DOGE? (Department of Government Efficiency) 🐶🏦🏛️🌇
$3K16 tradersResolved
99%
Will the US 2024 Presidential Election be considered a landslide victory for whoever is the winner? 🗽🦅🔥🇺🇸
$3K27 tradersResolved
10%
What will Project Hail Mary Global Box Office Gross be (in Millions) 🍿🎥🎬🚀🧑🚀
$3K17 tradersopen
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How large will the Semiconductor Industry (Nvidia, TSMC, AMD etc.) be in 2030? 🤖🧠🦾🚀✨🌐
$3K16 tradersopen
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Will Nvidia’s stock price exceed $200 in 2025?
$2K29 tradersResolved
99%
Will AMD become a Trillion Dollar Company before 2030? 🎢💻🤑🚀⚡
$2K25 tradersopen
70%
What Film Studio will Christopher Nolan work with for his next Movie? 🍿 🎥🎬🎞️
$2K12 tradersopen
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Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) policy be an explicitly partisan political issue before 2030 🤖🇺🇸⚖️💻
$2K41 tradersopen
69%
Will Javier Milei’s Government (Argentina 🇦🇷 ) purchase Bitcoin during his presidency?
$2K35 tradersopen
28%
What will Hurricane Helene’s final death toll be? 🌀🌪️💨
$2K10 tradersResolved
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What year will the total Crypto market cap exceed its previous all time high?
$2K10 tradersResolved
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Will the Stock Market ( S&P 500 ) drop 25% below its current all time high in 2025? 🇺🇸📉🏦🤑
$2K10 tradersopen
1%
Which stocks will outperform the NASDAQ index during 2025? 📊 📈💰🤑💳
$2K12 tradersResolved
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By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts?
$2K20 tradersopen
35%
Will 96 be the highest metascore of any video game released in 2023?
$2K14 tradersResolved
97%
Snow White’s Opening Weekend Box Office ❄️🎥🎬🍿
$2K8 tradersResolved
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What will Hurricane Milton’s final death toll be? 🌀🌪️💨
$2K21 tradersResolved
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Will an AI Tutor (LLM personalized for each student) replace conventional teaching by 2035?
$1K21 tradersopen
63%