Manifold Creator
Eccentricity
@eccentricity
Markets by Eccentricity
Will a commercially available device incorporate a room-temperature, ambient pressure superconductor by 2025?
$19K58 tradersResolved
1%
Will a reusable orbital rocket booster be re-flown by a company other than SpaceX before 2025?
$13K21 tradersResolved
1%
Will at least 1 million humanoid robots be produced by Jan 1, 2028?
$11K24 tradersopen
18%
Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?
$58714 tradersopen
32%
Which lab will claim that they have developed AGI first?
$57420 tradersopen
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When will the weights of GPT-4 be publicly available (leaked or open sourced)?
$40011 tradersopen
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Will I (an 18-year-old male US citizen) be drafted into the US military before Jan 1, 2029?
$37611 tradersopen
6%
Will Gemini exceed the performance of GPT-4 on the 2022 AMC 10 and AMC 12 exams?
$33113 tradersResolved
72%
John's book finished when?
$1423 tradersResolved
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