Manifold Creator
Evan
@eapache
Markets by Evan
Which lab will be the first to reach 50% on ARC-AGI-3?
$3K24 tradersopen
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Will JD Vance refuse to certify any electoral college votes in the 2028 election?
$3K18 tradersopen
10%
Will OpenAI Spud launch to the public before Claude Mythos?
$2K17 tradersResolved
97%
Will there be another major software supply chain attack before the end of April?
$9082 tradersResolved
99%
Who will be the next person to successfully defend their title as classical World Chess Champion?
$7735 tradersopen
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When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?
$52316 tradersopen
35%
When will Ottawa’s O-Train line 1 east expansion (to Trim Station) open for public ridership?
$4175 tradersopen
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Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?
$33214 tradersopen
16%
When will Ottawa’s O-Train line 2 open for public ridership?
$2753 tradersResolved
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Who will win the leadership of Alberta’s United Conservative Party?
$1274 tradersResolved
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Will the summer of 2022 in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada be one of the 5 hottest summers since the summer of 1935?
$948 tradersResolved
69%
When will Ottawa’s O-Train line 1 west expansion (to Lincoln Fields Station) open for public ridership?
$252 tradersopen
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Was the Axios compromise downstream of the Trivy compromise?
$91 tradersResolved
46%
How should the "SpaceX makes more than half of all space launches worldwide (in 2025)" question resolve?
$01 tradersResolved
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