Manifold Creator
duck_master
@duck_master
Markets by duck_master
Result of the Red Button / Blue Button vote on Aella's social network site Glosso?
$90K175 tradersResolved
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Will the US federal government actually have a "Department of Government Efficiency"?
$45K76 tradersResolved
95%
Will actors strike by the 13th?
$25K40 tradersResolved
2%
Will X/Twitter be banned in Brazil tomorrow?
$20K93 tradersResolved
1%
Will Donald Trump be attacked again?
$16K30 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Israeli-Palestinian war end by January 20, 2025?
$12K47 tradersResolved
3%
Will Meta get rid of CrowdTangle?
$10K17 tradersResolved
99%
Will actors strike by July?
$9K20 tradersResolved
0%
Will Manifold Die By Juneteenth?
$9K29 tradersResolved
1%
Which country will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be in on September 30, 2025?
$9K22 tradersResolved
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Will Substack use LLMs to help you write posts???
$8K15 tradersResolved
2%
Will the Central African Republic approve the new constitution in the July 30, 2023 referendum?
$7K20 tradersResolved
99%
Will GPT-5.4 be released by March 5, 2026?
$7K72 tradersResolved
99%
will Manifold bring back the newbies subpage by Jan 1, 2025?
$6K7 tradersResolved
3%
Will Nitter Die By Easter?
$5K32 tradersResolved
7%
Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2027?
$5K46 tradersResolved
100%
Result of Cambodia's general election on July 23, 2023?
$5K21 tradersResolved
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Will EEE spread in Massachusetts?
$5K14 tradersResolved
96%
Will Chris Murphy introduce a prediction-market-related bill in March 2026?
$5K20 tradersResolved
83%
Result of Spain's general election on July 23, 2023?
$4K23 tradersResolved
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Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by an amateur?
$3K21 tradersopen
10%
Will the USA's population ever drop below 100 million by the end of 2025?
$3K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will @Celene get food poisoning if she eats the bacon?
$3K24 tradersResolved
5%
[BOTH ROUNDS] Result of Ecuador’s presidential election in 2023?
$2K8 tradersResolved
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Will moltbook survive through the end of 2026?
$2K37 tradersopen
85%
will people arb between mana and sweepstakes versions of markets on Manifold?
$2K13 tradersResolved
78%
Will duck_master write his first LW post by June's end?
$1K5 tradersResolved
98%
poly.love relaunched by 14 Feb 2026?
$1K23 tradersResolved
2%
Result of Gabon’s presidential election on August 26, 2023?
$1K17 tradersResolved
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Result of Zimbabwe's presidential election on August 23, 2023?
$1K14 tradersResolved
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Grokipedia out by Oct 19?
$1K17 tradersResolved
1%
Will the last vessel from the Global Sumud Flotilla make it to Gaza?
$1K4 tradersResolved
1%
Will Switzerland approve "On the Implementation of the OECD/G20 project" on June 18, 2023?
$9043 tradersResolved
99%
How will I react to JMM 2025?
$9014 tradersResolved
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Will June 14, 2025 be a U.S. federal holiday?
$8954 tradersResolved
1%
Will Ecuador allow oil extraction in the referendum on August 20, 2023?
$88312 tradersResolved
6%
will Anthropic have another leak in April 2026?
$87129 tradersResolved
9%
Attendance at the Newton, MA ACX meetup on September 9, 2023?
$7099 tradersResolved
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Which group created Sonoma Sky Alpha?
$6902 tradersResolved
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Result of Singapore’s presidential election on September 1, 2023?
$6268 tradersResolved
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