Manifold Creator
Daniel Reeves
@dreev
Markets by Daniel Reeves
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
$1.1M291 tradersResolved
1%
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
$744K985 tradersopen
54%
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
$719K501 tradersopen
81%
Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?
$296K200 tradersResolved
100%
Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?
$280K308 tradersResolved
5%
Will Biden still be president at the end of October 2022? (resolves to quiescent market price)
$174K83 tradersResolved
81%
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
$167K107 tradersopen
26%
Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?
$121K158 tradersResolved
99%
Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?
$80K120 tradersopen
25%
Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?
$70K245 tradersopen
14%
Does GPT-5-Thinking make egregious errors on pure-text queries?
$61K174 tradersResolved
95%
Will the US make daylight savings time permanent in 2023?
$55K239 tradersResolved
1%
Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)
$53K48 tradersopen
10%
Will the Musk Twitter deal close by the end of 2023?
$47K142 tradersResolved
99%
Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?
$34K293 tradersopen
67%
Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?
$29K112 tradersopen
77%
Will an LLM be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024? (strict LLM version)
$27K34 tradersResolved
4%
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
$23K123 tradersopen
78%
Will I attend Manifest 2023?
$22K14 tradersResolved
100%
Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2023?
$19K86 tradersResolved
1%
Will Manifold allow editing of market descriptions?
$11K14 tradersResolved
100%
In what specific year will we hit AGI?
$11K72 tradersopen
—
Will Codebuff succeed at building an interactive app for dragging around bits of probability mass?
$10K8 tradersResolved
99%
Will I keep using Rewind.ai?
$10K32 tradersResolved
99%
Does AI Pareto-dominate technical but non-mathematician humans at math?
$10K60 tradersopen
29%
Will it be a Pareto improvement to change Beeminder goals' default end date to 2099-12-31?
$9K15 tradersResolved
99%
Will Apple kick Beeminder off the App Store?
$9K45 tradersResolved
1%
OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?
$9K33 tradersopen
59%
Will blockchain tech find a killer app by the end of 2023?
$9K24 tradersResolved
1%
Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?
$9K42 tradersopen
1%
Musk v Mosk: Is Tesla an Enron-style fraud?
$7K20 tradersopen
4%
Which Beeminder feature/project will have the highest ROI?
$7K19 tradersResolved
—
Is the probability of dying in Anthropic Snake Eyes 1/36?
$7K24 tradersopen
19%
Will Delta Airlines find our lost bags?
$7K21 tradersResolved
92%
Will I attend any of Lighthaven's Eternal September?
$7K10 tradersResolved
2%
What will happen if Cantor goes ice skating despite having a broken arm?
$6K12 tradersResolved
—
Will Portland have fully self-driving taxis by the end of 2025?
$5K49 tradersResolved
5%
Is the probability of "death" in the ball-and-urn version of the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?
$5K15 tradersResolved
1%
Which company will let me read a book while driving in a private car in 2025?
$5K16 tradersResolved
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How many people will follow Scott Alexander's example and donate a kidney?
$4K31 tradersopen
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