Manifold Creator
Derik K
@derikk
Markets by Derik K
Which team will win the 2022 National Science Bowl high school finals?
$210K30 tradersResolved
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Will I date someone new in 2023?
$46K79 tradersResolved
1%
Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic announce a new model on Pi Day 2024?
$30K91 tradersResolved
1%
Are @Austin and @RachelWeinberg engaged?
$22K32 tradersResolved
99%
Will @AndrewG get a girlfriend before May 2023?
$21K24 tradersResolved
8%
Will Trump’s running mate be a woman?
$19K81 tradersResolved
1%
Will Donald Trump be executed by the end of 2029?
$18K52 tradersopen
1%
Will Trump visit Lexington or Concord on April 19th?
$15K22 tradersResolved
1%
Will a Reuters story reference this market?
$11K37 tradersResolved
1%
Will the trading bonus be increased for the first few unique traders?
$9K15 tradersResolved
0%
Will anyone from Lexington win a Nobel Prize in 2024?
$9K11 tradersResolved
1%
New York Times settles Trump's $15B lawsuit before December 15, 2025?
$7K16 tradersResolved
3%
How many people will attend Minifest?
$6K14 tradersResolved
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Will I attend any weddings in 2024?
$6K14 tradersResolved
3%
Will Joe Biden announce his bid for reelection in February 2023?
$6K31 tradersResolved
1%
Will Turkey be a democracy by end of 2025?
$6K21 tradersResolved
5%
Will any of Dmitry Medvedev's predictions come true in 2023?
$6K58 tradersResolved
3%
Will @JoeC get a girlfriend before May 2023?
$5K12 tradersResolved
5%
Will the University of California consider SAT or ACT scores in admissions by the end of 2026?
$3K8 tradersopen
26%
Will Udio be considered better than Suno by Manifold users a month after public access?
$2K25 tradersResolved
91%
Will I have a generally favorable opinion of Elon Musk on June 1, 2026?
$2K13 tradersopen
16%
Will any guests at the Manifold party play a game of Gravity Chess?
$1K9 tradersResolved
99%
Will Dreamstar Lines begin revenue service in 2026?
$1K6 tradersopen
16%
Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight?
$1K23 tradersResolved
82%
Will the MBTA Red Blue Connector be open by EOY 2030?
$1K3 tradersopen
10%
Will I get an Omicron booster before October?
$9849 tradersResolved
97%
Will the killer of Bryan Johnson be arrested by the end of 2025?
$8306 tradersResolved
93%
Will construction resume on Revolution Wind before September 2026?
$7703 tradersopen
76%
Will I have access to Gemini Ultra today?
$7587 tradersResolved
3%
Will Gemini Ultra beat GPT-4V on the REBUS benchmark?
$60211 tradersResolved
17%
Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?
$5906 tradersopen
44%
Will Alvea get funding from BARDA in 2023?
$4614 tradersResolved
3%
Will Lexington High School win the 2023 National Science Bowl?
$3634 tradersResolved
97%
Will Jonas Clarke Middle School win the 2023 National Science Bowl middle school finals?
$2743 tradersResolved
3%
Will Twitter/X launch a dating feature by the end of 2024?
$2315 tradersResolved
7%
Will Turkey be at least partly free by end of 2025?
$2138 tradersResolved
10%
Will Jonas Clarke Middle School win the 2022 National Science Bowl middle school finals?
$1433 tradersResolved
36%
How many people will attend MoM (Sun May 12)?
$1227 tradersResolved
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Will Marjorie Taylor Greene regain committee assignments in 2023?
$703 tradersResolved
84%
Will there be another MoM in 2025?
$465 tradersResolved
58%