Manifold Creator
Data Chef
@datachef
Markets by Data Chef
Will Joe Biden pardon Donald Trump before leaving office?
$232K86 tradersResolved
1%
Will Bashar Al-Assad remain in power throughout 2025?
$163K82 tradersResolved
2%
Will Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize by the end of 2028?
$100K127 tradersopen
7%
Will Trump pardon anyone by the end of January 2025?
$100K142 tradersResolved
100%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?
$59K95 tradersopen
12%
Will Taylor Swift introduce Kamala Harris at an event before the election?
$55K109 tradersResolved
0%
Will Trump concede the election as part of a deal with Biden for a pardon?
$38K57 tradersResolved
0%
Will Israel launch air strikes within Tehran city limits by the end of 2024?
$26K51 tradersResolved
2%
Which celebrity couples will separate/divorce by the end of 2025?
$19K68 tradersResolved
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Will Nicolas Maduro accept asylum in the US by the end of 2024?
$19K42 tradersResolved
2%
Will $100mm in volume trade on Polymarket on Election Day?
$15K22 tradersResolved
99%
Will Boeing Starliner’s return flight be unmanned?
$15K48 tradersResolved
99%
Will RFK Jr be removed from the ballot in North Carolina?
$14K22 tradersResolved
98%
Will Travis Kelce endorse Kamala?
$14K21 tradersResolved
2%
Who will be the next CIA Director?
$14K20 tradersResolved
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Will a drone or missile launched from Iran successfully strike Tel Aviv by the end of 2024?
$14K28 tradersResolved
99%
Will Israel annex any part of Gaza by the end of 2025?
$13K51 tradersResolved
63%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel by the end of 2025?
$13K65 tradersResolved
99%
Will Pavel Durov still be in French custody at the end of 2024?
$12K57 tradersResolved
5%
Will Donald Trump pardon Hunter Biden?
$12K43 tradersResolved
1%
Will Taylor Swift attend the Chiefs season opener?
$12K30 tradersResolved
99%
Will someone throw a pitch 106 mph or faster during a MLB game by the end of 2025?
$12K18 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be the next Chief Technology Officer of OpenAI?
$11K21 tradersopen
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Will Israel launch air strikes within 100 km of Tehran by the end of 2024?
$11K37 tradersResolved
99%
Will Russia conduct a military action that directly triggers NATO's Article 5 by January 21, 2025?
$11K29 tradersResolved
1%
Will Israel break ground on a settlement in Gaza by the end of 2025?
$10K45 tradersResolved
2%
Will another state sponsored “pager detonation” like event take place by the end of 2024?
$10K25 tradersResolved
99%
Will there be a large prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine by end of 2024?
$10K49 tradersResolved
3%
Which of these players will hit a home run in the World Series?
$10K21 tradersResolved
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Will Iran launch air strikes anywhere inside Iran by the end of 2024?
$10K24 tradersResolved
82%
Will Shohei Ohtani pitch for the Dodgers during the 2024 postseason?
$9K22 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be the next FDA Administrator?
$9K9 tradersResolved
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Will the 119th Congress be breached by a mob of violent protesters?
$8K18 tradersopen
4%
Who will be the first foreign leader hosted by Trump in the Oval Office?
$8K11 tradersResolved
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Will Kamala Harris visit Ukraine by the end of 2025?
$8K53 tradersResolved
2%
Will Belarus invade Ukraine by the end of 2024?
$8K51 tradersResolved
2%
Will Polymarket crash on Election Day?
$8K27 tradersResolved
34%
Will Trump visit Xi Jinping in Zhongnanhai during his second term?
$7K9 tradersResolved
99%
Will Berkshire Hathaway close 2024 with a market cap of at least $1 trillion?
$7K15 tradersResolved
2%
Will there be a Secretary of Education in the next administration?
$7K34 tradersResolved
98%