Manifold Creator
Hayden
@cloudprism
Markets by Hayden
Will Netflix begin offering a "free with ads" tier before 2025?
$20K29 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be at least 1 million people (globally) that live physically underground by 2040?
$16K78 tradersResolved
92%
Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?
$10K115 tradersopen
23%
Will the US abolish non-pennies by 2030?
$8K30 tradersopen
1%
Will any market reach NaN%?
$8K34 tradersResolved
82%
What will be Donald Trump's next tweet in 2023?
$6K85 tradersResolved
—
Will at least one serious real-world event market on Manifold that sits at 1% or less actually resolve YES in 2023?
$5K43 tradersResolved
99%
Which of the following movies is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?
$5K65 tradersopen
—
Will personally-produced data be considered personal property according to US law by 2040?
$4K77 tradersopen
27%
Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2025?
$4K71 tradersResolved
13%
Is there a major headline discovery that still remains hidden in the world's oceans?
$3K81 tradersopen
89%
Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?
$3K83 tradersopen
33%
Will there be news before 2030 that the conditions of Uyghurs in China are worse than previously reported?
$3K66 tradersResolved
80%
Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2030?
$3K71 tradersopen
42%
Will Manifold add a "configurable market alert" feature before 2025?
$3K17 tradersResolved
3%
Will AI summon Cthulhu by 2040?
$2K27 tradersopen
5%
How many hours until the first copypasta will be sent on the Manifold live stream chat?
$2K3 tradersResolved
2%
Which episode of Black Mirror is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?
$2K33 tradersopen
—
R2-D2 by 2030?
$2K31 tradersopen
40%
What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?
$2K63 tradersopen
76%
Will Netflix remove their "ad-free unlimited streaming subscription" model before 2025?
$2K11 tradersResolved
2%
Will league ownership return by the end of 2023?
$2K16 tradersResolved
4%
Will at least 1% of all A/C units worldwide be replaced with energyless cooling alternatives by 2040?
$2K53 tradersopen
33%
How many people worldwide will be living primarily underground in 2040?
$2K24 tradersopen
65%
C-3PO by 2030?
$2K31 tradersopen
42%
Will the Antarctic sea ice extent reach at least 25 million square kilometers at least once this century?
$1K30 tradersopen
14%
Will Netflix begin offering a "pay per title" content model before 2025?
$1K10 tradersResolved
2%
How many real-world events in 2023 will resolve a Manifold market with a 99%+ reversal? (full year inclusive)
$1K10 tradersResolved
—
Will "avatarism" become a significantly notable movement by 2030?
$95031 tradersopen
34%
Will GDH (Gross Domestic Healthspan) overtake GDP in relevance/importance/attention by 2050?
$92236 tradersopen
12%
Will it be publicly revealed before 2030 that AGI had actually already been achieved before the year 2000?
$81419 tradersopen
5%
Is the Ship of Theseus still the Ship of Theseus?
$78319 tradersResolved
90%
Will ISAs (income share agreements) overtake "traditional" student loans by 2030?
$72314 tradersopen
6%
Will AI be broadly considered "boring"/commonplace/unremarkable by 2050?
$62119 tradersopen
86%
Will it become illegal in the US to collect/process/etc "raw" data (i.e. without DRM) by 2040?
$49222 tradersopen
15%
Is pi^pi^pi^pi an integer?
$4312 tradersResolved
5%
Will Tiger Woods become a star soccer player in 2027?
$4247 tradersResolved
4%
What is most likely to occur with healthcare as a system by 2050?
$3438 tradersopen
—
If OpenAI ever rebrands, what will their new name be?
$32817 tradersopen
—
Will Trent Reznor help score "The Prediction Market", a movie about Manifold?
$2844 tradersopen
4%