Manifold Creator
calm
@calm
Markets by calm
Will any (new) member of the '20-'23 Forbes Under 30 list be charged with a major crime by 2025?
$4K32 tradersResolved
96%
Will rolling blackouts occur in the ERCOT (Texas) region in Winter 2024/2025?
$4K12 tradersResolved
3%
Will any third party gain more than 5 concurrent seats in Congress before the end of 2032
$3K17 tradersopen
14%
Will a new non-dairy milk find mainstream popularity before 2025?
$2K20 tradersResolved
13%
When will the next measurable snowfall occur in Denver?
$81510 tradersResolved
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Will a US state take an electric utility to court for a major wildfire occurring in the next 2y?
$67413 tradersResolved
8%
will someone create and maintain a “can chatgpt beat the nyt spelling bee” market? (see description)
$64012 tradersResolved
87%
Overhead electric distribution still primarily built on wood poles in 50 years?
$63113 tradersopen
57%
How Long Until We Have A President Who Goes To Space?
$59818 tradersopen
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Will any of the current Chapo Trap House hosts quit the podcast by 2026?
$5287 tradersResolved
3%
Will the Alchemist be nominated for a Grammy in 2024?
$41215 tradersResolved
37%
Will X (Twitter) still be paying creators the same or more for engagement in 1 year (Sept '24)?
$4047 tradersResolved
20%
will visual generative AI be featured in a TV commercial in 2024?
$39920 tradersResolved
89%
Can a Katydid's natural camouflage thwart Google Lens or Apple Visual Lookup?
$32912 tradersResolved
64%
Will Manifold fix the purple-on-purple vote button on polls where results are available before voting?
$32712 tradersResolved
12%
[200M Subsidy] Will Xcel Energy be found liable for damages related to the 2021 Marshall Fire?
$2969 tradersResolved
58%
Will I promote to Gold (or Platinum) with D or F calibration?
$2408 tradersResolved
60%
Will Ron DeSantis admit to wearing lifts in his boots?
$1996 tradersResolved
9%
this market will* resolve PROB(100% - n)
$17612 tradersResolved
50%
Are wildfires an inherent, unavoidable risk of electric power transmission and distribution? [Resolves %]
$1165 tradersResolved
49%
Cliffhanger! [See Description]
$638 tradersResolved
54%
Which song will win the grammy for best dance/electronic recording in 2024?
$353 tradersResolved
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Will Denver mayor Mike Johnston be successful in significantly reducing homelessness during his current term?
$324 tradersopen
42%
Will X show me another video of someone getting hit by a car with no content warning through 2023
$203 tradersResolved
65%
Recommend a better word for “enshittification”
$00 tradersopen
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Help Me Resolve This Market
$00 tradersResolved
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