Manifold Creator
Michael
@burkh4rt
Markets by Michael
Will Trump and Harris schedule a second debate?
$70K165 tradersResolved
0%
Will the Chiefs make it to the Super Bowl again in 2025?
$37K90 tradersResolved
100%
Will Apple launch a new version of the AirPods Max at their September event?
$19K46 tradersResolved
1%
Will Vance and Walz shake hands at the VP debate?
$17K45 tradersResolved
99%
How many times will 538's election model change its predicted winner between today (25 Jun) and the election?
$16K48 tradersResolved
—
Will the next James Bond be announced before the end of July?
$10K15 tradersResolved
1%
In what month will 538 launch their presidential election model?
$10K21 tradersResolved
—
What will be the margin of victory (in number of electors) for the 2024 US Presidential election?
$10K35 tradersResolved
—
Will Trump and Harris shake hands at their first debate?
$7K29 tradersResolved
99%
Which party will win the 2028 US Presidential election?
$6K35 tradersopen
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Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?
$6K71 tradersopen
76%
Will an American win the first gold medal in breakdancing (either men's or women's)?
$4K16 tradersResolved
7%
Which party will recieve the most votes in France's 2024 parliamentary elections?
$3K18 tradersResolved
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Will Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo publicly swim in the Seine before the Olympics open?
$3K15 tradersResolved
99%
Will Manifold add Alley Cat Allies to its charity list before 1 May?
$3K7 tradersResolved
1%
Will the USPTO issue its 12 millionth utility patent before June?
$2K10 tradersResolved
4%
In what year will Python 4.0 be released?
$2K19 tradersopen
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Will U.S. Secret Service Director Cheatle resign / be fired within 2 months of Trump's assassination attempt?
$2K30 tradersResolved
99%
Will 23andMe ($ME) be delisted from the Nasdaq by the end of 2024?
$2K14 tradersResolved
0%
Will UConn reach the NCAA men's final four in 2025?
$2K17 tradersResolved
1%
Will Central Park record a 100-degree day this summer?
$1K6 tradersResolved
1%
What will happen at the next FOMC meeting in September?
$1K9 tradersResolved
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Will the Chiefs make it to the Super Bowl again in 2025?
$1K31 tradersResolved
99%
Will the 2024 UEFA European Final (Spain vs. England) proceed to extra time?
$1K8 tradersResolved
12%
Will the Feds lower rates a second time in 2024?
$1K6 tradersResolved
99%
Will Manifold let us create numeric questions for less than Ṁ10k by September?
$9006 tradersResolved
1%
Will Harris choose a current governor for her running mate?
$7505 tradersResolved
99%
Will Indianapolis be awarded an MLS expansion before 2027?
$6455 tradersopen
39%
Will the US Congress authorize the issue of letters of marque and reprisal before 2050?
$5629 tradersopen
28%
Will UConn reach the NCAA men's final four in 2025?
$46013 tradersResolved
11%
Will $ADBE hit $650 before the end of 2024?
$4455 tradersResolved
4%
[short fuse] Will the Spain-France euro semifinal today go into extra time?
$44510 tradersResolved
13%
Will Manifold add Alley Cat Allies to the charity list before 15 May?
$3654 tradersResolved
5%
How many more times will Musk campaign in person with Trump before the election?
$3266 tradersResolved
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Will Biden and Trump shake hands at the second debate in September?
$1905 tradersResolved
11%