Manifold Creator
Bjorn
@brp
Markets by Bjorn
Will Xi Jinping visit the US in 2023?
$84K247 tradersResolved
100%
Will Vladimir Putin visit China in 2023?
$49K137 tradersResolved
98%
Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?
$26K47 tradersopen
80%
Will SBF be released on bail?
$17K22 tradersResolved
99%
Will Twitter pay fines in the EU by Jan 1, 2024?
$15K63 tradersResolved
1%
Will Starship undergo a static fire test of all 33 engines by Feb 14?
$14K50 tradersResolved
2%
Will EU charges be brought against Twitter by July 1, 2023?
$13K30 tradersResolved
0%
Will Starship booster B7's next potentially flightworthy firing test be an actual flight test?
$13K7 tradersResolved
100%
Will Xi Jinping visit the US in 2024?
$12K15 tradersResolved
1%
Will a COVID-19 variant cause intermittent mask mandates in the United States by March 2024?
$11K24 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Director of National Intelligence comply with the Covid-19 Origin Act of 2023?
$10K3 tradersResolved
0%
Will an AI-authored story win a short story contest by 2024?
$8K47 tradersResolved
2%
Will Kakhovka hydroelectric station be damaged, causing flooding by the end of 2023?
$8K11 tradersResolved
100%
Will 1024-bit RSA be broken by a quantum computer by 2025?
$8K29 tradersResolved
1%
Does LK-99 exhibit one-dimensional (1D) superconductivity? (June 2024 resolution by scientific consensus)
$7K24 tradersResolved
2%
Will the US national average retail price of onions double by 2024?
$7K12 tradersResolved
0%
Will Yoon Seok-Yeol visit Europe excluding Russia in 2023?
$6K4 tradersResolved
100%
Did violent crime rates increase in the USA in 2022? (based on FBI UCR)
$6K12 tradersResolved
2%
Will a non-Covid, non-Monkeypox infectious disease be the top news item in BBC Health on August 1, 2023?
$6K57 tradersResolved
4%
Will Starship's next 33-engine firing be completely successful?
$6K13 tradersResolved
23%
Will 1024-bit RSA be broken by a quantum computer in 1H of 2023?
$5K23 tradersResolved
0%
Will depositors at another US bank be bailed out before May?
$5K22 tradersResolved
8%
Will a train derailment in the US cause evacuation of a municipality of more than 1000 people before 2025?
$5K34 tradersclosed
7%
Will a non-Covid, non-Monkeypox infectious disease be the top news item in BBC Health on October 31, 2023?
$5K36 tradersResolved
3%
Will Starship's next test firing of a potentially flightworthy assembly be a flight test?
$4K8 tradersResolved
99%
Will Xi Jinping visit Europe excluding Russia in 2023?
$4K19 tradersResolved
2%
Will Starship undergo a static fire test of 33 engines or fewer by Feb 28?
$4K5 tradersResolved
100%
Will an AI-authored short story be published in a major science fiction magazine by 2024?
$4K52 tradersResolved
7%
Will DeSantis announce a running mate by June 2024?
$3K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will a COVID-19 variant cause intermittent lockdowns in the United States by March 2024?
$3K22 tradersResolved
1%
Which country will win the FIFA U-20 World Cup 2023?
$3K9 tradersResolved
—
Will 1024-bit RSA be broken by a quantum computer by 2024?
$3K17 tradersResolved
2%
Will dictation via free tools be faster and more accurate than typing in ~~April~~ June 2023?
$3K39 tradersResolved
11%
Manifold user futures market: will @jack's portfolio increase by >100% by Dec 15, 2022?
$3K15 tradersResolved
100%
Will a containership enter the inner Port of Baltimore by June? (i.e. Francis Scott Key bridge debris removed?)
$3K9 tradersResolved
99%
Did violent crime rates increase in the USA in 2022? (based on NCVS)
$3K12 tradersResolved
99%
Will Xi Jinping voluntarily leave any of his offices before 2026?
$3K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will Twitter end 2022 with more monthly active users than 2021?
$3K15 tradersResolved
97%
Will a non-Covid, non-Monkeypox infectious disease be the top news item in BBC Health on December 31, 2023?
$2K27 tradersResolved
6%
Will Russian military personnel invade Ukraine from Belarus in 2023?
$2K23 tradersResolved
3%