Manifold Creator
Bohaska
@bohaska
Markets by Bohaska
Which cities will Google Santa Tracker's Santa go to?
$110K11 tradersResolved
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Will users under 18 years old be allowed to use Manifold throughout 2024?
$74K66 tradersResolved
4%
1 year from the end of the "Bet on Love" dating show, will Manifold staff believe that it was a good idea?
$34K122 tradersResolved
60%
Who will have sent the most messages in the Manifold discord (over last 30 days) by the time January leagues close?
$30K8 tradersResolved
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Will Germany ban pro-Palestine protests before November 2023?
$28K30 tradersResolved
0%
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have an approval rating higher than 50% one year later?
$22K44 tradersResolved
1%
(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
$21K73 tradersopen
42%
Which university will I be admitted into?
$21K33 tradersResolved
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Will there be a piracy incident near Somalia before 2025?
$20K29 tradersResolved
98%
How much mana will this market have in the pool at close?
$18K21 tradersResolved
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Will there be an article about Manifold in TIME before 2024?
$18K56 tradersResolved
2%
Will the Singaporean government work with Manifold to make prediction markets before March?
$15K83 tradersResolved
1%
Will my flight (MU5820) be delayed by more than 30 minutes?
$15K15 tradersResolved
0%
Who will be hired by Manifold before 2025?
$14K32 tradersResolved
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Will Manifold be blocked in China completely by end of 2023?
$12K58 tradersResolved
3%
Will Google open-source SynthID before October?
$10K19 tradersResolved
1%
Will Jadon Sancho (Manchester United) be transferred during the January window?
$10K16 tradersResolved
100%
How many options will this market have at close?
$9K22 tradersResolved
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Will I get into Masters league for the February season?
$9K12 tradersResolved
0%
Will a typhoon/tropical storm hit Shanghai again in September?
$9K7 tradersResolved
1%
Will @agency put up a billboard before June?
$9K20 tradersResolved
2%
Will Biden ever be ahead of Trump in the Economist's polls for February?
$7K15 tradersResolved
0%
Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?
$7K10 tradersResolved
8%
How many views will the Wikipedia page Prediction market have in October 2023?
$6K26 tradersResolved
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Will I promote to Diamond this season?
$6K18 tradersResolved
4%
Will users under 18 years old be allowed to use the mana-only part of Manifold for the rest of 2024?
$5K16 tradersResolved
97%
How many international student visas would the US government revoke before July?
$5K14 tradersResolved
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Will @Joshua have a hangover tomorrow?
$5K5 tradersResolved
100%
Will @HakeemYates still be banned from Manifold a week later?
$5K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will Trump earn more than 45% of voters in the Economist's polls for February?
$5K7 tradersResolved
100%
What will be the most-viewed Wikipedia page in November 2023?
$5K23 tradersResolved
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Will any Manifold staff member or moderator be arrested/punished for a misdemeanor or felony before 2025?
$5K30 tradersResolved
12%
(M500 subsidy) Conditional on Jim Jordan being elected House Speaker, will the US have a government shutdown in 2023?
$5K7 tradersResolved
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How many copies of Yudkowsky and Soares' book will be sold in the first year, worldwide? (Compressed range)
$5K36 tradersopen
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Will @Mira be able to pay prizes for their Manifold Lottery?
$5K15 tradersResolved
99%
How much will I get on my SAT test?
$5K44 tradersResolved
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Will these part-time employees of Manifold become full-time employees before 2025?
$4K14 tradersResolved
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Will Manifold set mana prices in round numbers?
$4K20 tradersResolved
2%
Is @barak the same person as @agency?
$4K11 tradersResolved
97%
Joint Market: Elon Musk defends the CCP in a tweet in 2024 & Twitter/X is unblocked in China before 2026
$4K14 tradersResolved
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