Manifold Creator
blue rat
@bluerat
Markets by blue rat
Will the next pope think gay sex is a sin?
$20K112 tradersResolved
95%
Which beliefs are the most rationalist?
$18K60 tradersResolved
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Will there be another Jan 6th if Trump loses the election?
$6K74 tradersResolved
35%
Will I think jury nullification occured in the Luigi Mangione case?
$4K23 tradersopen
7%
Will America have 700 mass shootings in 2023?
$4K25 tradersResolved
5%
Will the NFC team win the 2023 Super Bowl coin toss?
$2K20 tradersResolved
27%
If I run my trades past Claude 3.5 before I bet will my all time profit hit 0 before the end of the month?
$1K5 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be awarded the Nobel prize in chemistry in 2023
$1K12 tradersResolved
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will flightaware.com report the plane that is scheduled to leave TLV at 11:10 pm IST Monday landed at EWR before 4 am EST Tuesday?
$6803 tradersResolved
11%
If someone does statistical analysis on manifold markets ability to predict things, will I be impressed by the accuracy?
$1488 tradersResolved
75%
will I see all the pitch black products in stores before the limited time offer ends?
$1202 tradersResolved
50%
Will the World Mission Society Church of god still exist 20 years after the death of Zahng Gil-jah?
$122 tradersopen
57%
I am smarter than most people.
$015 tradersResolved
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I personally try to do whatever I can in order to make better decisions
$010 tradersResolved
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you should never be 100% confident of any belief
$013 tradersResolved
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learning about common biases and trying to account for them in yourself can help one to make better decisions
$08 tradersResolved
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Rationality is the art of winning; if there's a behavior you think is rational, but it tends to lose, you're not actu...
$011 tradersResolved
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The probability that AI destroys humanity or causes incredible suffering before 2100 is >5%.
$016 tradersResolved
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I would be very happy if Eliezer Yudkowsky was president
$017 tradersResolved
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Did you get the "Which is heavier: 20 pounds of bricks or 20 feathers?" question right on the first try?
$034 tradersopen
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most people are too often overconfident that they know what someone else is trying to say. It can be helpful in discu...
$011 tradersResolved
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everyone should do what they can in order to make better decisions
$012 tradersResolved
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studying economics can help one to make better decisions
$011 tradersResolved
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beliefs which do not influence future predictions (ie. ones that can only explain things in retrospect or ones that d...
$07 tradersResolved
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Least Convenient Possible World: LGBTQ Rights or Economic Stability?
$015 tradersopen
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It is important to vet beliefs such that your beliefs will be true and you will not hold beliefs that are false.
$010 tradersResolved
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Consequentialism and deontology are not at odds. Use deontology because it's easier to work with on a daily basis; us...
$09 tradersResolved
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"The Sequences" are worth reading in their entirety
$014 tradersResolved
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an intuitive understanding of bayes' theorem can help one to make better decisions
$07 tradersResolved
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studying game theory can help one to make better decisions
$011 tradersResolved
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I would be very happy if Scott Alexander was president
$011 tradersResolved
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one should change their beliefs when presented with new information.
$015 tradersResolved
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it's important to distinguish between your model of reality and reality itself
$014 tradersResolved
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we are prone to "become attached to beliefs we may not want", but we can take explicit reasoning steps to mitigate this
$010 tradersResolved
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Emotions are bad and dumb. Smart people try to ignore them.
$016 tradersResolved
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