Manifold Creator

Biased

@biased

Markets by Biased

Russian roulette: which chamber contains the bullet?

$11K31 tradersResolved

When will OpenAI release o1?

$5K53 tradersResolved

How biased is this coin?

$3K45 tradersopen
43%

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November 2024?

$3K51 tradersResolved
99%

Will Hamas leader Sinwar leave Gaza in 2024?

$2K17 tradersResolved
99%

Will Rust be the most admired language in the 2025 StackOverflow developer survey?

$1K16 tradersclosed
99%

Let’s cooperate

$9011 tradersResolved

Will Israel’s proposed hostage/Sinwar deal be accepted?

$8984 tradersResolved
1%

Which Oasis Live '25 tour shows will Noel and Liam both appear at?

$8874 tradersResolved

Will Hizbollah’s new leader Naim Qassem survive 2024?

$72517 tradersResolved
97%

If Trump wins the 2024 U.S. election, will voters “not have to do it anymore”?

$69617 tradersopen
5%

Resolution roulette

$48012 tradersopen
57%

Will IDF control the Philadelphi Corridor until at least the end of 2025?

$2516 tradersclosed
89%

Will Ryan Routh be sentenced to death for attempting to assassinate Donald Trump?

$1703 tradersopen
12%

Will a fourth season of How to with John Wilson be released before the end of 2025?

$1353 tradersclosed
17%

What form factor will the device from OpenAI + LoveFrom take?

$1316 tradersclosed

What types of Manifold markets should users prefer to bet on?

$402 tradersResolved

Low status stock

$172 tradersopen
48%

High status stock

$51 tradersopen
52%

[poll] Who won the Sept. 10th U.S. presidential debate?

$051 tradersResolved

Should I create a zipfian distribution bot?

$010 tradersopen

Should I create a zipfian distribution bot?

$00 tradersResolved
50%

What types of Manifold markets should users prefer to bet on?

$08 tradersopen

What are your favorite numbers to use as random seeds? [add your own choices]

$00 tradersResolved