Manifold Creator
Ben
@bcongdon
Markets by Ben
Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable in the US by the end of 2023?
$84K307 tradersResolved
2%
Will a successor to GPT-3 (e.g. GPT-4) be announced in 2022?
$23K126 tradersResolved
2%
Will any user place a M$10,000 bet on this market?
$22K19 tradersResolved
100%
Will Google release a new Gemini model before March 2025?
$10K23 tradersResolved
99%
Will OpenAI offer a paid version of Dalle in 2022?
$8K29 tradersResolved
100%
Will there be more Atlantic hurricanes in 2022 than 2021?
$6K25 tradersResolved
99%
Will Cohere AI be acquired or cease operating before the end of 2025?
$5K7 tradersResolved
3%
Will Imbue (AI startup) be acquired or cease operating before the end of 2025?
$3K3 tradersResolved
5%
Will I run a full marathon in 2023?
$3K18 tradersResolved
95%
Will Bitcoin's price fall below $25k for at least one day in 2022?
$3K25 tradersResolved
99%
Will Manifold implement a date/time answer type in 2022?
$3K22 tradersResolved
2%
Will the median prediction for Metaculus' General AI forecast be earlier than June 2027 at the end of 2022?
$2K20 tradersResolved
8%
Will the West Seattle Bridge reopen in 2022?
$2K6 tradersResolved
100%
Will Build Back Better pass before election day?
$2K13 tradersResolved
99%
Will Solana trade under $20 before Aug 1, 2022?
$2K13 tradersResolved
6%
Will I get access to DALL-E 2 in 2022?
$2K11 tradersResolved
99%
Will the total market cap of crypto go above $1T again before July 1, 2022?
$2K18 tradersResolved
1%
Which Manifold user will have the most followers on July 1, 2022?
$1K17 tradersResolved
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Will there be a COVID-19 related story on the front page of the NYTimes in the week of December 1-8, 2022?
$1K20 tradersResolved
84%
What will FiveThirtyEight predict as the chance of Republican control of the US Senate on election day?
$1K24 tradersResolved
51%
Will KSP 2 be released in Early Access on Feb 24, 2023?
$1K16 tradersResolved
92%
Will Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTI) close higher on any day in the rest of 2022 than its 1/3/2022 closing price?
$1K8 tradersResolved
1%
Will BlockFi pause withdrawals or cease operations in 2022?
$1K14 tradersResolved
97%
Will the sale of new gas cars be illegal in California in 2035?
$1K26 tradersopen
39%
Will I test positive for covid in 2022?
$1K6 tradersResolved
99%
Will Sheryl Sandberg tweet in 2022?
$9929 tradersResolved
4%
Will I run a half-marathon in 2022?
$9874 tradersResolved
99%
Will Seattle air quality be >150 AQI on October 22?
$8067 tradersResolved
14%
Will Seattle, WA have 5 or more days of bad air quality in the summer of 2022?
$7768 tradersResolved
3%
What will FiveThirtyEight predict as the chance of Republican control of the US House on election day?
$77016 tradersResolved
70%
Will the average US national gas price be >= $4.50 on July 1, 2022?
$67311 tradersResolved
98%
Will the Seattle East Link light rail extension open for passengers in 2023?
$62311 tradersResolved
4%
Will Seattle have a day of >100 AQI air in the first week of November?
$60010 tradersResolved
11%
What will the peak mortgage rate be in 2022?
$5496 tradersResolved
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Will Celsius remove its pause of withdrawals by July 14, 2022?
$4908 tradersResolved
3%
Will a screenshot of this market appear in Above the Fold in June?
$47712 tradersResolved
4%
Which will be the top 3 most "wanted" programming/scripting/markup languages in the 2022 StackOverflow developer survey?
$45613 tradersResolved
—
Will Manifold make its market close date picker easier to use in 2022?
$35713 tradersResolved
30%
Will I do at least 12 (of 16) items on my todo list by the end of the day?
$3353 tradersResolved
94%
Will I build a project with Litestream in 2022?
$2527 tradersResolved
6%