Manifold Creator
Ashly
@ashly_webb
Markets by Ashly
Will a new GPT release before Gemini Ultra?
$11K14 tradersResolved
0%
AI-assisted team beats non-AI team at FactoryAI x METR hackathon?
$9K27 tradersResolved
98%
Will Xi Da get a girlfriend by April 1 2026?
$6K18 tradersResolved
65%
who will win the uhs scioly election (initials)
$4K4 tradersResolved
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Will I graduate from college?
$3K39 tradersopen
84%
Conditional on if Taylor Swift endorses Joe Biden for President, will Joe Biden win the presidency?
$3K51 tradersResolved
48%
Will a Language Model under 10B parameters play chess at Grandmaster level by 2050?
$2K21 tradersopen
88%
Will Donald Trump ever take a GLP-1 agonist (eg Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy, Zepbound, etc) for weight loss
$2K34 tradersopen
57%
Will GPT4o achieve ELO more than 100 points greater than GPT-4-Turbo on the LMSYS chatbot arena?
$1K12 tradersResolved
1%
Did life start before the earth formed?
$63535 tradersopen
43%
By 2030, will the majority of top10 rated chess players in the world be born during/after 2000?
$2839 tradersopen
60%
Will US birth rates rise above 2.0 at any point before 2030?
$1303 tradersopen
11%
Will NASA or any other space agency have a plan for interstellar travel by 2100
$1088 tradersopen
78%
Will something AI-related be an actual infohazard?
$928 tradersopen
69%
Will I donate >$2k by the end of 2024?
$627 tradersResolved
64%
Should I take a gap year before starting college?
$0206 tradersopen
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Recommend me Physics Substacks/Blogs
$00 tradersopen
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How do you approach breaks?
$00 tradersopen
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Will Kyler Chin complete the Catenary Grand Coastal Ride in under 4.5 hours?
$00 tradersResolved
50%
Should I buy a 15 inch Macbook Air
$068 tradersopen
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