Manifold Creator
amp!
@ampdot
Markets by amp!
Will Meta release any same-size LLaMa that performs better at MMLU before October 14th 2024?
$68K52 tradersResolved
2%
Will Manifold leak KYC information by the end of 2026?
$21K23 tradersopen
3%
Will Meta release models titled LLaMa 3.3 before the end of October 2024?
$7K11 tradersResolved
2%
ampjoyjapan Prop Bets [ADD RESPONSES]
$4K10 tradersResolved
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Will Elon Musk own more than 90% of Twitter before June 1st?
$3K32 tradersResolved
1%
Will Meta release audio input and voice output capabilities for any LLaMa model before the end of November 2024?
$3K10 tradersResolved
6%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky administer headpats or headscritches to tetraspace in February 2024?
$2K22 tradersResolved
8%
Before 2026, will Tetraspace attend a conference where Tetraspace plays a major, visible role?
$2K9 tradersopen
13%
(M$300 subsidy) Will Tetraspace receive a grant to work on AI safety memetics, goodwill, or community building in 2023?
$2K18 tradersResolved
9%
Will tetraspace and ampdot break up before going to Japan?
$2K3 tradersResolved
2%
(M$100 subsidy) Will Tetraspace receive physical affection from ten separate people in 2023?
$1K11 tradersResolved
92%
Will Elon Musk fire >70% of Twitter’s workforce by the end of the year?
$1K19 tradersResolved
8%
Will GPT-4o ("omni") be released by the end of the year? (see description)
$1K11 tradersResolved
19%
Will there be an outbreak of grey death in the US?
$1K9 tradersResolved
5%
Will Tetraspace have dyed her hair white by the end of September?
$90011 tradersResolved
23%
Will Apple allow anyone to add third-party Watch faces to Apple Watch by 2024?
$4367 tradersResolved
4%
Will a comment containing a link to the recently hidden market be posted and not hidden when this market resolves?
$3074 tradersResolved
92%
Will Tetraspace have dyed her hair white by October 14th?
$2999 tradersResolved
22%
Will my DHL package in the same state arrive, that is predicted to arrive on the 10th, arrive before the FedEx package in New Jersey, that was predicted to arrive yesterday?
$402 tradersResolved
59%
Will SERI MATS allow Tetraspace to apply as an independent researcher?
$201 tradersResolved
53%
How much did my laptop cost?
$00 tradersResolved
20%