Manifold Creator
adhoum
@adhoum
Markets by adhoum
US bombs Iran in June 2025?
$292K485 tradersResolved
99%
ICE kills another US citizen by end of February 2026
$214K645 tradersResolved
1%
Israel attacks Iran by January 31st, 2026
$108K314 tradersResolved
2%
Iran attacks and damages US military bases in Middle East by end of July 2025?
$62K89 tradersResolved
86%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026
$25K81 tradersResolved
99%
Will Bitcoin break $150k in 2025?
$22K37 tradersResolved
1%
Israel strikes Iran's nuclear facility in June 2025?
$14K19 tradersResolved
99%
France recognizes Palestine by end of September?
$6K57 tradersResolved
99%
Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026
$5K37 tradersopen
86%
Alphabet at $200 per share EOY2025?
$4K19 tradersResolved
100%
Iran bombs US military bases in Middle East by end of June 2025?
$3K32 tradersResolved
2%
Will any European country formally recognize a Palestinian state between June and December 2025?
$3K18 tradersResolved
99%
Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?
$2K34 tradersResolved
99%
Trump tariffs against EU on July 9th?
$2K17 tradersResolved
3%
Merab Dvalishvili submits Sean O’Malley at UFC 316?
$1K7 tradersResolved
99%
Which world leaders will attend the Grand Egyptian Museum opening on July 3, 2025?
$1K4 tradersResolved
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Palantir breaks $150 by EOY2025?
$9485 tradersResolved
99%
Meta shuts down or merges Threads by EOY2025?
$88810 tradersResolved
3%
Large-scale internet blackout in G20 country by EOY2025?
$64911 tradersResolved
3%
Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?
$5305 tradersopen
10%
Portugal recognizes Palestine by end of September?
$5104 tradersResolved
96%
Trump threatens Tesla regulation by EOY2025?
$46311 tradersResolved
14%
Rheinmetall stock price above €2,500 by December 31, 2025
$4014 tradersResolved
4%
Large anti-AI protest in a Western country by EOY2025?
$37310 tradersResolved
5%
Saudi NEOM project faces pause, downsizing, or lawsuit before 2026?
$3517 tradersResolved
94%
Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
$34212 tradersopen
14%
Ilia Topuria knocks out Charles Oliveira?
$29810 tradersResolved
61%
Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew?
$2098 tradersopen
32%
Will the Trump administration sign a bilateral agreement to acquire land in Greenland by the end of 2026?
$1658 tradersopen
26%
Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026
$1518 tradersopen
19%
Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?
$1417 tradersopen
32%
Will Germany attend a Ukraine peace summit with Russia that excludes the US before 2027?
$1404 tradersopen
15%
Major climate relocation policy announced by EOY2025?
$1205 tradersResolved
17%
Major EV manufacturer announces 10%+ layoffs in 2025?
$1105 tradersResolved
25%
Will a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations
$701 tradersopen
26%
Who will win in UFC 320?
$02 tradersResolved
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Who will win in the main fight in UFC 326?
$04 tradersResolved
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