Manifold Creator
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How many attendees will test positive for COVID during summer camp or LessOnline?
$20K16 tradersResolved
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Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book be a NYT bestseller in 2025? under various conditions
$6K18 tradersResolved
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Will Sam Altman work for Microsoft for at least a month (before 2025)?
$3K17 tradersResolved
3%
Did the OpenAI board approach Anthropic about a merger?
$2K19 tradersResolved
10%
Will the trump administration do large-scale enforcement against grey/black-market feminizing HRT?
$51312 tradersopen
50%