Manifold Creator
arae
@abcdef
Markets by arae
SpaceX’s Starship will reach orbit [in 2023]
$161K188 tradersResolved
0%
The Supreme Court will rule that affirmative action is unconstitutional [Vox prediction — READ DESCRIPTION AND COMMENTS]
$137K121 tradersResolved
0%
Who will be Destiny's 2023 Buddy of the Year?
$91K88 tradersResolved
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2022 World Cup: Will France reach the Finals?
$76K71 tradersResolved
100%
Vladimir Putin will still be President of Russia [at the end of 2023]
$68K50 tradersResolved
100%
2022 World Cup: Will Brazil reach the Finals?
$65K12 tradersResolved
0%
2022 World Cup: Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals?
$58K35 tradersResolved
0%
OpenAI will release GPT-4 [in 2023]
$57K36 tradersResolved
99%
2022 World Cup: Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals?
$52K28 tradersResolved
100%
2022 World Cup: Will Portugal reach the Semifinals?
$50K44 tradersResolved
0%
This market resolves YES on March 1, 2023.
$44K44 tradersResolved
100%
2022 World Cup: Will France reach the Quarterfinals?
$36K24 tradersResolved
100%
2022 World Cup: Will Germany reach the Semifinals?
$36K17 tradersResolved
0%
Will a country controlling 2022 territory of Germany, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and the Baltics exist by the end of 2023?
$35K129 tradersResolved
0%
2022 World Cup: Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals?
$35K27 tradersResolved
100%
At least one new country will join NATO [in 2023]
$35K33 tradersResolved
99%
2022 World Cup: Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals?
$33K23 tradersResolved
100%
Top Gun: Maverick will not win Best Picture
$33K48 tradersResolved
100%
2022 World Cup: Will France reach the Semifinals?
$30K21 tradersResolved
100%
Who will be Destiny's 2024 Buddy of the Year?
$29K69 tradersResolved
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2022 World Cup: Will England reach the Quarterfinals?
$27K23 tradersResolved
100%
Will there be a parliamentary election in the UK before 2024?
$27K35 tradersResolved
1%
At least three lab-grown meat companies will begin selling their products in the US [in 2023]
$27K40 tradersResolved
0%
2022 World Cup: Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals?
$26K19 tradersResolved
100%
Will Spindle traunche any markets before the end of 2022?
$26K10 tradersResolved
100%
The US will slip into recession during 2023
$26K51 tradersResolved
1%
Beyond Meat’s stock price will break $30 at the end of the year
$25K16 tradersResolved
0%
Will YIMBY Law get at least US$500 in donations before Manifold for Charity ends?
$25K9 tradersResolved
100%
Will the United Kingdom become a candidate to rejoin the European Union in 2023?
$24K32 tradersResolved
1%
Will the price of crude oil reach $150 at any time in 2023?
$23K58 tradersResolved
1%
2022 World Cup: Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals?
$22K16 tradersResolved
100%
Will Northern Ireland join the Republic of Ireland in 2023?
$20K34 tradersResolved
1%
2022 World Cup: Will Brazil reach the Semifinals?
$20K22 tradersResolved
0%
2022 World Cup: Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals?
$20K20 tradersResolved
0%
A psychedelic-based mental health treatment will win US regulatory approval
$19K27 tradersResolved
0%
China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan [in 2023]
$18K76 tradersResolved
99%
Will France fight a war against Germany in 2023?
$18K53 tradersResolved
1%
Over 50 million birds will be culled due to US bird flu outbreaks [in 2023]
$17K18 tradersResolved
2%
2022 World Cup: Will Uruguay reach the Quarterfinals?
$17K17 tradersResolved
0%
At the end of 2023, will Poland or Hungary occupy any territory that was controlled by Ukraine in 2013?
$17K21 tradersResolved
1%