Manifold Creator
Writer
@Writer
Markets by Writer
If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?
$82K175 tradersResolved
3%
Will Rational Animations' video "The Power of Intelligence" accrue 1 million views by the end of 2023?
$51K125 tradersResolved
2%
Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024?
$46K332 tradersResolved
1%
Will Rational Animations' first plushie campaign be successful?
$38K92 tradersResolved
66%
If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?
$36K143 tradersopen
9%
Will I be the Manifold Markets user responsible for the highest number of referrals by 2024?
$25K91 tradersResolved
3%
Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?
$17K137 tradersopen
59%
Will Elon Musk do something as a result of his AI angst by 2025?
$9K53 tradersResolved
97%
Is Bing Chat conscious?
$8K70 tradersopen
8%
If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?
$6K95 tradersopen
55%
Will Rational Animations' fundraiser for GiveDirectly meet its objective?
$5K32 tradersResolved
4%
Will the EA Forum or LessWrong start using EigenKarma by 2025 (public experiments included)?
$4K26 tradersResolved
5%
Will I be able to resolve yes/no markets directly from Discord by the end of 2023?
$2K17 tradersResolved
2%
Rational Animations Stock
$2K15 tradersopen
74%
Will I hire an AI Safety scriptwriter by 08/16/2023?
$66717 tradersResolved
83%
How many views will the video "How to Take Over the Universe (in Three Easy Steps)" have accrued on December 19th 2022?
$26710 tradersResolved
79%
Will Rational Animations' video published on March 11th 2023 get 1 million views by the end of 2024?
$23811 tradersResolved
67%
Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 30 million USD in 2025?
$1549 tradersclosed
27%
How much money will the LEV Foundation spend in 2025?
$1336 tradersclosed
78%
Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 1 million USD in 2025?
$627 tradersclosed
57%
Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 5 million USD in 2025?
$294 tradersclosed
52%
Will the LEV Foundation spend at least 10 million USD in 2025?
$264 tradersclosed
41%