Manifold Creator

Vincent

@Vincent

Markets by Vincent

Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2024?

$13K27 tradersResolved
2%

Will the Netherlands hold general elections for the House of Representatives (Tweede Kamerverkiezingen) in March 2025?

$13K16 tradersResolved
1%

Will any AI solve more than four of AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks in 2025?

$11K22 tradersResolved
4%

Will Joe Biden outlive Jimmy Carter?

$10K29 tradersResolved
99%

Will forces from a NATO member country enter Belarus before Q4 2023?

$9K24 tradersResolved
0%

Will there be a right-wing terrorist attack in the Netherlands in 2023?

$7K49 tradersResolved
7%

Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?

$4K40 tradersopen
13%

Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2025?

$3K11 tradersResolved
96%

Will China reach its 2030 renewable target of 1200 GW in 2025?

$2K2 tradersResolved
90%

Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2026?

$1K13 tradersopen
15%

Will we see multiple billion dollar religion startups by 2025?

$1K11 tradersResolved
3%

Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2027?

$55410 tradersopen
40%

Ukraine will successfully hit Russian Black Sea export terminals in Crimea within a month

$53714 tradersResolved
5%

Will smog be a thing of the past in 2123?

$45315 tradersopen
81%

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of EU/US government before 2060?

$26810 tradersopen
77%

Will WHO/IARC designate aspartame as probably carcinogenic or carcinogenic within the next five years?

$2188 tradersopen
13%

Will Wopke Hoekstra be considered fit for the commissioner job during the European Parliament hearing?

$2148 tradersResolved
67%

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for selecting national governments in EU or US before 2060?

$1913 tradersopen
13%

Will there be a civil war in Turkey before 2035?

$1068 tradersopen
33%

Will WHO/IARC designate aspartame as probably carcinogenic or carcinogenic within the next ten years?

$1005 tradersopen
32%

Which country will be the leading producer of green hydrogen in 2030?

$683 tradersopen

Will China be the leading producer of green hydrogen in 2030?

$454 tradersopen
45%