Manifold Creator
Vincent
@Vincent
Markets by Vincent
Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2024?
$13K27 tradersResolved
2%
Will the Netherlands hold general elections for the House of Representatives (Tweede Kamerverkiezingen) in March 2025?
$13K16 tradersResolved
1%
Will any AI solve more than four of AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks in 2025?
$11K22 tradersResolved
4%
Will Joe Biden outlive Jimmy Carter?
$10K29 tradersResolved
99%
Will forces from a NATO member country enter Belarus before Q4 2023?
$9K24 tradersResolved
0%
Will there be a right-wing terrorist attack in the Netherlands in 2023?
$7K49 tradersResolved
7%
Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
$4K40 tradersopen
13%
Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2025?
$3K11 tradersResolved
96%
Will China reach its 2030 renewable target of 1200 GW in 2025?
$2K2 tradersResolved
90%
Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2026?
$1K13 tradersopen
15%
Will we see multiple billion dollar religion startups by 2025?
$1K11 tradersResolved
3%
Will the Dutch cabinet fall in 2027?
$55410 tradersopen
40%
Ukraine will successfully hit Russian Black Sea export terminals in Crimea within a month
$53714 tradersResolved
5%
Will smog be a thing of the past in 2123?
$45315 tradersopen
81%
Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of EU/US government before 2060?
$26810 tradersopen
77%
Will WHO/IARC designate aspartame as probably carcinogenic or carcinogenic within the next five years?
$2188 tradersopen
13%
Will Wopke Hoekstra be considered fit for the commissioner job during the European Parliament hearing?
$2148 tradersResolved
67%
Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for selecting national governments in EU or US before 2060?
$1913 tradersopen
13%
Will there be a civil war in Turkey before 2035?
$1068 tradersopen
33%
Will WHO/IARC designate aspartame as probably carcinogenic or carcinogenic within the next ten years?
$1005 tradersopen
32%
Which country will be the leading producer of green hydrogen in 2030?
$683 tradersopen
—
Will China be the leading producer of green hydrogen in 2030?
$454 tradersopen
45%