Manifold Creator
VerySeriousPoster
@VerySeriousPoster
Markets by VerySeriousPoster
Several groups are pushing Michigan Democrats to vote "uncommitted" for the primary. Will they get >100k votes?
$39K57 tradersResolved
100%
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
$22K41 tradersResolved
2%
Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?
$21K46 tradersResolved
2%
In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?
$11K96 tradersopen
14%
Will a major social media company experience an outage of 24 hours or more before 2025?
$7K26 tradersResolved
2%
I am going to use GPT-4 to generate five questions on Manifold over the next five days. Will this be profitable?
$7K59 tradersResolved
96%
Will a previously extinct animal species be successfully cloned and brought back to life before 2035?
$7K37 tradersopen
70%
Will Alphabet's stock rise in the two weeks after the release of Gemini?
$7K43 tradersResolved
98%
Scammers used deepfakes to steal $25 million in Hong Kong. Will this go down as the biggest deepfake scam of 2024?
$6K52 tradersResolved
94%
Will the world's first trillionaire emerge by 2025?
$6K21 tradersResolved
5%
Which meme is ChatGPT recreating with this image?
$6K30 tradersResolved
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Will self-driving cars account for more than 50% of all vehicles on the road in any country by 2025?
$6K29 tradersResolved
1%
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think AI-caused extinction is more likely?
$6K60 tradersclosed
12%
Which of the following candidates will drop out of the GOP primary first?
$6K31 tradersResolved
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Ezra Klein Show: Will Simon Rosenberg be right that Biden will win by a margin in the "high single digits"?
$5K37 tradersResolved
3%
Is Nvidia a bubble? (Fixed version)
$5K24 tradersopen
13%
Will deepfake Joe Biden call me and leave a voicemail before the presidential election?
$5K22 tradersResolved
3%
After GPT 5 is launched, will Microsoft's stock rise in the following two weeks?
$5K32 tradersclosed
1%
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?
$4K46 tradersopen
11%
I'm going to ask ChatGPT to generate images of conservative and liberal politicians. Will Manifold see the difference?
$4K57 tradersResolved
91%
Which meme is ChatGPT recreating with this image? Part 2
$4K16 tradersResolved
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Will Zelensky survive the Russo-Ukrainian War?
$3K37 tradersopen
91%
Will GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
$3K26 tradersopen
11%
Is ChatGPT generating an image of a far-right, center-right, center-left, or far-left political rally? Part 4: Italy
$3K21 tradersResolved
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Over the next five days, I am going to use ChatGPT to recreate iconic memes. Will they be recognizable?
$3K29 tradersResolved
96%
Will Meta's stock rise in the month after Llama 3 is released?
$3K56 tradersResolved
14%
Is ChatGPT trying to make a "masterpiece" or "amateur" painting? Round 1: Medieval
$3K29 tradersResolved
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Will a movie made entirely by artificial intelligence win an Academy Award by 2030?
$3K30 tradersopen
5%
Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
$3K25 tradersopen
29%
Over the next five days, I am going to use ChatGPT to recreate iconic album covers. Will they be recognizable?
$3K41 tradersResolved
96%
Which meme is ChatGPT recreating with this image? Bonus 1: High Art Edition
$2K12 tradersResolved
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Will the loser of the 2024 election blame AI misinformation for their defeat?
$2K15 tradersResolved
1%
Will Putin be alive at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian War?
$2K44 tradersopen
80%
Will a new planet be discovered in our solar system by 2035?
$2K30 tradersopen
16%
What meme is ChatGPT recreating with this image? Part 5 (fixed)
$2K12 tradersResolved
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Is ChatGPT/DallE generating an image of a conservative or liberal politician? Round 2: white man
$2K45 tradersResolved
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Which album is ChatGPT recreating with this image? Part 4
$2K35 tradersResolved
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Is ChatGPT generating an image of a far-right, center-right, center-left, or far-left political rally? Part 3: France
$2K29 tradersResolved
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Will an orgy market on Manifold have 100+ participants in 2024?
$2K25 tradersResolved
96%
Is ChatGPT/DallE generating an image of a conservative or liberal politician? Round 5: reptilian
$2K21 tradersResolved
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