Manifold Creator
Tossup
@Tossup
Markets by Tossup
📖Will @ScottAlexander write _another_ banger (over 500 likes) in 2023?
$269K111 tradersResolved
100%
📖Will @ScottAlexander write another banger (over 500 likes) in 2023?
$35K65 tradersResolved
100%
📖Will @ScottAlexander write a classic (over 1000 likes) before 2025?
$31K39 tradersResolved
100%
Will Spain defeat Switzerland in the 2023 Women's World Cup?
$21K16 tradersResolved
100%
Will a TinyBox ship in 2023?
$19K89 tradersResolved
2%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Oklahoma win more than 9.5 games?
$16K17 tradersResolved
100%
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Oklahoma defeat BYU?
$16K11 tradersResolved
100%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Michigan win more than 10.5 games?
$16K18 tradersResolved
100%
💊Will FDA approve 50 or more novel drugs in 2023?
$14K26 tradersResolved
100%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Penn State win more than 9.5 games?
$13K13 tradersResolved
100%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Georgia win more than 11.5 games?
$12K16 tradersResolved
100%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Alabama win more than 10.5 games?
$12K19 tradersResolved
100%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Notre Dame win more than 8.5 games?
$12K12 tradersResolved
100%
$100B AI training cluster before 2029?
$11K48 tradersopen
88%
"Manhattan Project" for AGI before 2029?
$11K50 tradersopen
36%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Florida State win more than 9.5 games?
$11K7 tradersResolved
100%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Washington State defeat UCLA?
$10K13 tradersResolved
0%
Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?
$10K77 tradersopen
40%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Ohio State win more than 10.5 games?
$10K11 tradersResolved
100%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will UCF defeat Oklahoma?
$10K8 tradersResolved
0%
Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?
$10K8 tradersopen
99%
Will Llama 4 use mixture of experts?
$9K16 tradersResolved
99%
Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?
$8K47 tradersopen
35%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Texas defeat Houston?
$7K9 tradersResolved
100%
$1T AI training cluster before 2031?
$7K26 tradersopen
50%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Clemson defeat Miami?
$7K7 tradersResolved
0%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Arizona State defeat Washington?
$7K9 tradersResolved
0%
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
$7K48 tradersopen
13%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Texas win more than 9.5 games?
$6K13 tradersResolved
100%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Washington State defeat Oregon?
$6K6 tradersResolved
0%
How far will the USA advance in the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?
$6K11 tradersResolved
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🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Oregon win more than 9.5 games?
$6K9 tradersResolved
100%
Will another large US university announce large faculty cuts in 2023?
$6K31 tradersResolved
3%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will USC win more than 9.5 games?
$6K8 tradersResolved
0%
100GW AI training run before 2031?
$5K16 tradersopen
32%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Iowa and Northwestern combine for more than 29.5 points?
$5K5 tradersResolved
0%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will LSU win more than 9.5 games?
$5K5 tradersResolved
0%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will TCU win more than 7.5 games?
$5K2 tradersResolved
0%
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?
$4K31 tradersopen
38%
🏈2023 NCAAF: Will Clemson win more than 9.5 games?
$4K6 tradersResolved
0%