Manifold Creator
Tom Offer
@Tomoffer
Markets by Tom Offer
Will signs of life on K2-18b be confirmed?
$45K84 tradersResolved
3%
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 160 seats at the next UK general election?
$28K107 tradersResolved
0%
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 240 seats at the next UK general election?
$20K34 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 200 seats at the next UK general election?
$16K60 tradersResolved
1%
Will Labour's planned inheritance tax on UK farms over £1m be scrapped before April 2026?
$10K14 tradersResolved
99%
[M100 sub] Will there be a well-reviewed video game with LLM-based NPC dialogue by 2026 (no mods)?
$8K57 tradersResolved
9%
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 300 seats at the next UK general election?
$7K22 tradersResolved
1%
Will Lex Fridman host a debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in 2024?
$3K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?
$3K32 tradersopen
29%
Will any rights be granted to a silicon-based intelligence before 2050?
$3K44 tradersopen
61%
Will Hearts win the Scottish league?
$2K17 tradersResolved
1%
Will I retain my diamond league position this month?
$1K7 tradersResolved
98%
Will the current season of (Slay the Spire) Slay by Comment get a heart kill?
$1K15 tradersResolved
93%
Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?
$1K38 tradersopen
31%
Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2085?
$1K23 tradersopen
15%
Will Season 5 of (Slay the Spire) Slay by Comment get a heart kill?
$1K7 tradersResolved
98%
Will Slay the Spire 2 be on Switch (or successor) by end 2025?
$1K11 tradersResolved
1%
Will the US halve its emissions by 2030?
$77417 tradersopen
22%
Will Nintendo ever release Zelda Twilight Princess on the Switch?
$66312 tradersopen
4%
Will Manifold deal with weird single-bet generic-comment spam accounts by 2024?
$65512 tradersResolved
51%
Will the UK's FTSE 100 end 2025 above 10,000?
$6442 tradersResolved
2%
Will 6G use AI in the physical layer? (Rel 19, 2025ish)
$45421 tradersclosed
17%
Will 6G use AI in the physical layer before 2030?
$43215 tradersopen
49%
Will Liz Truss ever again lead a political party with at least 1 sitting MP?
$3408 tradersopen
7%
Will AI be in used in a cellular wireless (5G, 6G) physical layer before 2027?
$28716 tradersopen
47%
Will the Bennu asteroid sample contain terrestrial amino acids?
$2168 tradersResolved
20%
Will 6G use CP-OFDM (per 4G, 5G) modulation?
$884 tradersopen
85%