Manifold Creator
Tom Goldthwait
@TomGoldthwait
Markets by Tom Goldthwait
Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?
$20K35 tradersopen
27%
Will one or more ECOWAS states engage in open military operations related to the coup in Niger before the end of 2023?
$11K51 tradersResolved
3%
Will Starfield be a buggy mess on release?
$6K55 tradersResolved
6%
Who will win season 16 of RuPaul's Drag Race?
$5K28 tradersResolved
—
Will Glorb drop a new track by or on April 1?
$4K11 tradersResolved
100%
Will Jim Harbaugh be head coach of the Chargers in 2024?
$4K21 tradersResolved
99%
Will someone in the world engage in stratospheric aerosol injection before the year 2030?
$3K57 tradersResolved
45%
Will there be a fistfight or other similar physical altercation in US Congress (house or senate) before 2030?
$80517 tradersopen
41%
Will the US monthly male prime-age (25-54) employment rate drop below 83% by the end of 2023?
$3838 tradersResolved
20%
Will US fertility rates go above 2 births per woman before 2030?
$36613 tradersopen
11%
Will Disney's Haunted Mansion break $30 million at the box office opening weekend?
$122 tradersResolved
57%