Manifold Creator
Toby
@Toby96
Markets by Toby
Keynesian Beauty Contest.
$148K108 tradersResolved
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Will at least one person on board the Titan submersible be awarded a Darwin award?
$15K115 tradersResolved
14%
Will I reach Master rank on Manifold by the end of the year?
$13K12 tradersResolved
0%
Will I reach a prediction streak of 50 on my current run?
$6K15 tradersResolved
100%
Will the social media site formerly known as Twitter be profitable "early 2024"?
$6K39 tradersResolved
4%
This market resolves yes with a "random" 1% probability (See description).
$5K17 tradersResolved
1%
[500m subsidy] Tug of War.
$5K14 tradersResolved
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Will I reach diamond rank on Manifold by the end of the year?
$4K9 tradersResolved
96%
Will an episode of the WAN show air this week?
$4K20 tradersResolved
2%
Will Linus & Luke discuss any of the current ongoing controversies in this week's WAN show.
$4K22 tradersResolved
5%
Resolves as the inverse of whichever side has most shares held by bot accounts at close
$3K15 tradersResolved
98%
Will my all-time high Lichess rapid rating be ≥1950 by the end of the year?
$3K13 tradersResolved
2%
Will I create a market with 100 unique traders in 2023?
$3K13 tradersResolved
98%
Is Magnus Carlsen on Manifold?
$3K15 tradersopen
2%
Will humans wipe out AI by 2030?
$3K18 tradersopen
7%
Will I stay on Diamond rank (or higher) after the October season?
$2K8 tradersResolved
1%
Will I be able to hide news topics on the front page of Manifold at close?
$1K12 tradersResolved
2%
Will Linus say "you got to understand" at least 10 times in this weeks WAN show?
$1K11 tradersResolved
2%
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
$1K17 tradersopen
9%
Will the all time trading profits graph on my profile be in the green when this market closes?
$1K7 tradersResolved
5%
What will the Floatplane subscriber count for Linus Tech Tips be when this market resolves?
$9105 tradersResolved
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Will my all-time profit graph be in the green by the end of the year?
$75914 tradersResolved
84%
Will Manifold allow users to hide news tabs in the "news" section by market close?
$7304 tradersResolved
1%
Will the return of the WAN show feature an unscripted discussion of recent controversies.
$2234 tradersResolved
50%
What will the dislike ratio of the first proper LTT video after the drama be?
$2123 tradersResolved
7%
Will any of the remaining Avatar movies be delayed before close?
$1448 tradersopen
66%
Will an AGI resolve this market by 2100?
$1327 tradersopen
44%
What is the lowest number picked by exactly one person in the linked form (up to 1500m price)?
$1248 tradersResolved
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Will I still get emails asking me to resolve cancelled bounties by the end of November?
$1184 tradersResolved
75%
Will I accomplish my step goal of 5000 steps as tracked by Google Fit every day this week?
$1001 tradersResolved
90%
Length of longest sequence of years with an increasing July temperature anomaly for the period 2020-2035.
$363 tradersopen
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What will the position of the highest movie on the IMDB top 250 list that I haven't seen be at close?
$284 tradersResolved
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Which interquartile range will my AGI alignment feasibility poll end in?
$112 tradersclosed
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Should people stop making markets that are shameless self-promotion (eg. market for increase in their follower count)
$101 tradersResolved
59%
Each day I will roll two dice. If the dice sum to 12, I will resolve the market according to the date (See description).
$52 tradersResolved
51%
Resolves to the lowest option with the fewest number of positions.
$01 tradersResolved
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Is a solution to the AGI alignment problem possible by 2100?
$052 tradersResolved
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What is your intuition about this probability comparison?
$013 tradersopen
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[Closed] Dollar Auction
$00 tradersResolved
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