Manifold Creator
Thomas Kwa
@ThomasKwa
Markets by Thomas Kwa
Will a glowfic-derived rationality or AI post get 100 LW karma before 2024?
$16K29 tradersResolved
2%
Will I succeed at writing a SpaceChem AI before March 2024?
$4K25 tradersResolved
20%
Will any of my markets get attention in the next 7 days?
$4K14 tradersResolved
97%
Will our LessWrong post on Goodhart's Law be curated?
$3K7 tradersResolved
96%
On 1/1/2024 will I think J. Cannell is right about the minimal energy per bit-meter of interconnect?
$3K12 tradersResolved
16%
Will someone strengthen our Goodhart's Law result?
$1K10 tradersResolved
12%
Does thermal noise make Drexlerian nanocomputers impossible?
$81711 tradersclosed
41%
Will I juggle 4 balls before juggling 3 balls blindfolded?
$46612 tradersResolved
80%
When will Caleb use Lyft?
$4439 tradersResolved
18%