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Manifold Creator

Thomas Kwa

@ThomasKwa

Markets by Thomas Kwa

Will a glowfic-derived rationality or AI post get 100 LW karma before 2024?

$16K29 tradersResolved
2%

Will I succeed at writing a SpaceChem AI before March 2024?

$4K25 tradersResolved
20%

Will any of my markets get attention in the next 7 days?

$4K14 tradersResolved
97%

Will our LessWrong post on Goodhart's Law be curated?

$3K7 tradersResolved
96%

On 1/1/2024 will I think J. Cannell is right about the minimal energy per bit-meter of interconnect?

$3K12 tradersResolved
16%

Will someone strengthen our Goodhart's Law result?

$1K10 tradersResolved
12%

Does thermal noise make Drexlerian nanocomputers impossible?

$81711 tradersclosed
41%

Will I juggle 4 balls before juggling 3 balls blindfolded?

$46612 tradersResolved
80%

When will Caleb use Lyft?

$4439 tradersResolved
18%
9
Markets Created
Total Volume$33K
Total Traders129
Resolved8
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