Manifold Creator
Saint Germain
@ThePhilosopher
Markets by Saint Germain
Has GPT-4's weights leaked on the deep or dark web already?
$4K35 tradersResolved
9%
Will there exist open-source text-to-game AI models that can create a game like Halo 3 just by prompting by end of 2025?
$4K26 tradersResolved
3%
China has/already had access to GPT-4 weights; proof before 2025
$4K15 tradersResolved
5%
Will research in getting closer to unlimited-context windows in LLMs be released by Feb, 11, 2024?
$3K72 tradersResolved
15%
Will it be possible for AI to have the potential to discover sub-quark structures by end of 2025?
$3K20 tradersclosed
4%
What comes first, biological immortality or the technological singularity?
$2K56 tradersResolved
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Will an open-source text-to-music LLM model be able to create an entire album as convincing as a human by end of 2025?
$2K20 tradersclosed
9%
Will sub-quark structures be discovered by AI by end of 2024?
$1K11 tradersResolved
8%
Will it be possible to live inside a computer where you are still conscious inside even if the computer is destroyed?
$88321 tradersResolved
18%
Will AI be able to make a new Sudoku ruleset variant, where from it, you can have infinite unique puzzles?
$76711 tradersResolved
10%
How likely is LK-99 market to resolve YES due to advancements in text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning?
$7078 tradersResolved
5%
By 2030 will we have video-to-video where an LLM can continue any video prompt in any way you like?
$44610 tradersopen
76%
Will Cathie Wood's ARK Invest be as big as Blackrock by 2030?
$42013 tradersResolved
6%
Will an open-source fully functional Auto-GPT like LLM exist by the end of 2025?
$40213 tradersclosed
90%
When will the amount of LLMs released per day hit 100k in the US?
$2955 tradersResolved
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Will Uploaded Intelligence (human brain upload) exist by 2050?
$29410 tradersopen
52%
Does nanotechnology get influenced by Moore’s Law enough to track?
$13314 tradersResolved
41%
Have people found strategies to definitively or continuously jailbreak GPT-4?
$885 tradersResolved
79%
If people tried text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning with the LK-99 papers, do you think it would help it replicate?
$843 tradersclosed
15%
Can it be proven that with GPT-4 you can find a permanent way around its rate limits?
$382 tradersResolved
46%
Will text-to-PDF techniques or LLM models be able to do something akin to deductive/inductive reasoning by end of 2024?
$344 tradersResolved
54%
Are there thresholds for levels of difficulty for Traditional Sudoku or is there no limit?
$262 tradersResolved
33%
Does human super intelligence exist naturally without the aid of external, artificial influence and why?
$41 tradersResolved
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