Manifold Creator
The Not Too Distant Future
@TheNotTooDistantFuture
Markets by The Not Too Distant Future
Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?
$10.2M138 tradersResolved
1%
Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by April 23, 2025?
$612K75 tradersResolved
1%
Worldcoin scales up to at least 10M World ID sign-ups by August 15, 2024?
$329K23 tradersResolved
1%
Who will accept the challenge by Rudyard Lynch (Whatifalthist) for a debate held by August 13, 2024?
$307K25 tradersResolved
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Will YouTuber 'Whatifalthist's prediction of a new US civil war be covered by major US news media outlets by July 14?
$253K33 tradersResolved
1%
ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?
$142K90 tradersResolved
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Will there be an act of terrorism using drones in Paris during the Olympics between July 24 - August 11?
$136K86 tradersResolved
1%
Will 2024 prove to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2 as posited by Noah Smith?
$17K25 tradersResolved
11%
"Sholto's challenge" (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Will anyone show specialization in the Mixtral model by June 28?
$8K13 tradersResolved
13%
Will Sam Altman make it to September 18, 2024 without anyone shooting at him?
$4K23 tradersResolved
99%
Will YouTuber 'Whatifalthist' retract his prediction of a new US civil war before the 2024 election?
$57426 tradersResolved
40%