Manifold Creator
Tassilo Neubauer
@Tassilo
Markets by Tassilo Neubauer
Will EAGxIndia 2023 be cancelled?
$27K47 tradersResolved
1%
Will I find a partner in 2023?
$10K32 tradersResolved
99%
Will LessWrong the website have shutdown by the end of 2025?
$4K19 tradersResolved
2%
Will Tassilo Think Singular Learning Theory Isn’t Useful for Alignment by the End of 2024?
$3K16 tradersResolved
10%
Will There Be Exemptions for Frontier AI Models in the EU AI Act if an Agreement Is Reached in Any 2023 Trilogue?
$3K13 tradersResolved
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Do we live in a simulation?
$2K47 tradersopen
38%
Will I Be Convinced Some People Feel Wi-Fi from 5+ Meters Away?
$2K15 tradersResolved
5%
Will my girlfriend start her documentary analysis by the 7th of May?
$1K6 tradersResolved
1%
Will I go to bed before midnight for the next 7 days?
$1K22 tradersResolved
87%
Will LessWrong the website shutdown for more than 1 week in 2023?
$1K18 tradersResolved
2%
Will I regret not getting a drivers license in 2023 by 2030?
$95614 tradersopen
21%
How many USD will the Long Term Future Fund (LTFF) pay out in 2023?
$7467 tradersResolved
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By 2024 Will I Turn Off My Wi-Fi Router at Night for Health Reasons?
$58910 tradersResolved
5%
Will I go to bed before midnight for the next week?
$51310 tradersResolved
82%
At the end of 2023, will I believe that "bigfoot" is a near-hominid species of great ape that avoids humans very effectively", and the possibility is worth spending some non-negligible amount of effort investigating?
$46117 tradersResolved
8%
Will I regret getting a driver's license in 2023 by 2030?
$44515 tradersResolved
29%
Will Mitochondria mutations be identified as the primary root cause of aging by 2035?
$4159 tradersopen
10%
How many USD will the Long Term Future Fund (LTFF) pay out in 2024?
$3644 tradersResolved
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Will Jesse Hoogland Believe the Project of Scoping Devinterp Has Made Meaningful Progress Towards Alignment by March?
$3536 tradersResolved
64%
I will refrain from doing anything Manifold-related from Mon-Sun between 00:00 and 17:00 CET
$2828 tradersResolved
70%
Will my grilfriend start writing her marketing essay in the next two days?
$2701 tradersResolved
4%
Will I consider LED Brain Stimulation useful for Productivity?
$2495 tradersResolved
9%
Will I have children by 2035?
$2427 tradersopen
43%
Will my girlfriend start her psychology essay in 2 days?
$2201 tradersResolved
4%
How many USD will the Long Term Future Fund (LTFF) pay out in 2025?
$1924 tradersopen
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Retrotransposon activation identified as the primary root cause of ageing by 2035?
$1403 tradersopen
19%
I will refrain from doing anything Manifold-related on Tue-Mon between 00:00 and 17:00 CET
$1203 tradersResolved
90%
Will I finish extracting formulas and confusing topics from experimental physics 1&2 lecture slides today?
$1153 tradersResolved
74%
I will go to bed before midnight 4 out of 6 times until Monday morning.
$1153 tradersResolved
73%
Is the Log-rank conjecture true?
$1094 tradersopen
50%
Will Yeast 2.0 mother cells age more slowly than normal yeast?
$422 tradersopen
50%
What Papers/Posts/Books on ML-Theory will I invest more than 5 hours in this year?
$102 tradersResolved
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Will the eagxindia-2023 be cancelled?
$00 tradersResolved
50%