Manifold Creator

Jack Hammer

@Slackhammer

Markets by Jack Hammer

Is there anything objective to learn from psychadelics research?

$3K21 tradersclosed
89%

The moon is made of green cheese.

$2K17 tradersResolved
82%

Will humanity be wiped out by an artificially intelligent Orgasm Maximizer?

$1K8 tradersResolved
1%

Odds a child has ever been sacrificed for adrenochrome?

$1K9 tradersResolved
1%

2+2 = ?

$9517 tradersResolved

Do squirrels secretly run everything?

$9097 tradersResolved
1%

Will humans rent their bodies out to AI?

$8985 tradersResolved
1%

I am Skeleton Jelly.

$8574 tradersResolved
99%

Will a genetically modified slime mold escape from a lab by 2028?

$8118 tradersResolved
2%

∇•B = ?

$7525 tradersResolved

Will there be a military coup to restore order in the US by 2025?

$7119 tradersclosed
2%

Are current conditions the result of an AI created in the future?

$7037 tradersResolved
3%

Methods to clean up microplastic.

$63010 tradersclosed

How many of the political markets on Manifold are push polling?

$6116 tradersResolved

Will the solution to AI alignment be found in Animism?

$5908 tradersResolved
6%

Will all pornography be illegal in the US by 2028?

$5403 tradersResolved
2%

Are the effects of psychadelic hallucinogens in any way related to quantum effects in the brain?

$50511 tradersclosed
14%

Will a video game NPC become self-aware and/or independently selected by AI to represent itself by 2025?

$3986 tradersResolved
6%

Will they finally get what's coming to them?

$3033 tradersResolved
94%

In what order will astronauts bounce around on these solar system bodies?

$2173 tradersclosed

In the 19th Century, did they have the technology to thermo-electrically sense a cow 1/4 mile away?

$1998 tradersResolved
20%

Which species will AI covertly train and employ to do its bidding?

$1964 tradersclosed

Will gold still be valuable in 2050?

$1965 tradersclosed
85%

When will AI be able to dox anyone based on publicly-available writing samples?

$1735 tradersclosed

Which color of Soylent will be most popular in 2030?

$1615 tradersResolved

What's the best hedge against hyperinflation?

$1615 tradersclosed

Could a higher-dimensional being use the Banach–Tarski paradox to recreate the loaves and fishes miracle?

$1607 tradersResolved
16%

How many devices sold in 2024 contain hardware-based spyware?

$1554 tradersResolved

If AGI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it create SCP-style cognitohazards or antimemes within a year?

$1154 tradersclosed
18%

Is 'The Wild Robot' AI propaganda?

$957 tradersclosed
21%

Which sauce or condiment will be the most popular on human flesh in 2027?

$575 tradersResolved

How can the presence of money get work from people without being given to them?

$563 tradersclosed

Will we make great pets?

$554 tradersclosed
62%

Will humans wipe out humans, thinking that they are wiping out an AI?

$543 tradersResolved
39%

Corporate AI Deathmatch

$416 tradersResolved

Will the housing crisis abate in 2025?

$304 tradersclosed
37%

Will diamonds still be valuable in 2050?

$273 tradersclosed
57%

The origin of sulfur stones recently discovered on Mars will turn out to be...

$254 tradersclosed

Will AI be able to brainwash users by 2045?

$232 tradersclosed
60%

Will the Milsford Scenario play out in the U.S. by Thanksgiving, 2024?

$201 tradersclosed
41%