Manifold Creator
Sketchy
@Sketchy
Markets by Sketchy
How many stars will be on the official flag of the USA on Mar 1? [Resolves to PROB]
$465K36 tradersResolved
50%
When will the FED pivot (lower interest rates)?
$415K172 tradersResolved
—
Will SCOTUS reverse the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to bar Trump from the ballot?
$403K574 tradersResolved
100%
Will Lisa Cook be on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve for the October meeting?
$388K171 tradersResolved
99%
How will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial end?
$334K508 tradersResolved
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Time Weighted Keynesian Beauty Contest (The Market, KBC edition)
$206K30 tradersResolved
—
*Exponential* Time Weighted Keynesian Beauty Contest (The Market, KBC edition)
$203K35 tradersResolved
—
Centered, *Exponential* Time Weighted Keynesian Beauty Contest (The Market, KBC edition)
$156K16 tradersResolved
—
[Ṁ1000 Subsidy] Will there be a second round in Turkey's 2023 Presidential elections?
$150K86 tradersResolved
99%
Will @inerati tweet the word "rationalussy" (and keep the tweet up for at least a day) by the end of August leagues?
$139K44 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the end of the year?
$135K247 tradersResolved
—
Will claims of a "retrieved craft of non-human origin" be confirmed by the US government by the end of the year?
$111K406 tradersResolved
1%
Will Manifold drop to 8,000 or fewer Monthly Active Users by the end of 2023?
$97K35 tradersResolved
100%
Who will be a special guest/speaker at Manifest 2024?
$96K95 tradersResolved
—
🍫 Will cocoa prices reach $10,000/metric ton in 2024?
$96K72 tradersResolved
99%
Jimmy Kimmel Live back on air by the end of October?
$96K283 tradersResolved
99%
When will Israeli forces enter the Gaza Strip?
$94K100 tradersResolved
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Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2025?
$85K157 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives in a week?
$81K132 tradersResolved
—
Will Manifold drop to 7,000 or fewer Monthly Active Users by the end of 2023?
$63K49 tradersResolved
100%
Will the FED cut rates *before* their scheduled September meeting?
$51K169 tradersResolved
1%
Will anyone in the leaked Houthi War chat be fired/resign over it by the end of April?
$50K205 tradersResolved
2%
In which FOMC meeting will the FED pivot (lower interest rates)?
$48K61 tradersResolved
—
Will Sergei Shoigu still be the Russian Minister of Defence at the end of July?
$48K111 tradersResolved
99%
Will the second No Kings protest outnumber the first?
$47K296 tradersResolved
99%
If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Manifold, will it mention the market on whether the NYT publishes an article?
$47K35 tradersResolved
0%
Will I manage to squat 3 plates this year?
$46K65 tradersResolved
1%
Will a non-coinflip "Crystal" market with Ṁ1,000,000 of initial liquidity be created by the end of July?
$44K26 tradersResolved
4%
Artemis II Prop Bets
$42K119 tradersResolved
—
Will the TikTok ban pass the Senate by the end of March?
$41K69 tradersResolved
0%
Will there be a trillionaire by the end of 2026?
$41K135 tradersopen
94%
GPT-5 Release Prop Bets
$40K171 tradersResolved
—
Who will be the first half-trillionaire?
$40K73 tradersResolved
—
Will Google pause or remove AI Overviews by the end of May?
$40K161 tradersResolved
2%
What category storm will Hurricane Milton be when it makes landfall in the continental US?
$39K111 tradersResolved
—
Will the Charity Entrepreneurship contest markets resolve before August?
$38K21 tradersResolved
100%
Will @Dagonet win Leagues across all divisions in July?
$37K20 tradersResolved
1%
🐻 Which bear will be crowned champion of Fat Bear Week 2024?
$37K8 tradersResolved
—
Will James Medlock take on another Twitter bet by the end of the year?
$33K52 tradersResolved
100%
Will Reddit still be in the top 20 most visited websites at the end of 2023?
$32K138 tradersResolved
99%