Manifold Creator

Sketchy

@Sketchy

Markets by Sketchy

How many stars will be on the official flag of the USA on Mar 1? [Resolves to PROB]

$465K36 tradersResolved
50%

When will the FED pivot (lower interest rates)?

$415K172 tradersResolved

Will SCOTUS reverse the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to bar Trump from the ballot?

$403K574 tradersResolved
100%

Will Lisa Cook be on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve for the October meeting?

$388K171 tradersResolved
99%

How will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial end?

$334K508 tradersResolved

Time Weighted Keynesian Beauty Contest (The Market, KBC edition)

$206K30 tradersResolved

*Exponential* Time Weighted Keynesian Beauty Contest (The Market, KBC edition)

$203K35 tradersResolved

Centered, *Exponential* Time Weighted Keynesian Beauty Contest (The Market, KBC edition)

$156K16 tradersResolved

[Ṁ1000 Subsidy] Will there be a second round in Turkey's 2023 Presidential elections?

$150K86 tradersResolved
99%

Will @inerati tweet the word "rationalussy" (and keep the tweet up for at least a day) by the end of August leagues?

$139K44 tradersResolved
1%

Who will be Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the end of the year?

$135K247 tradersResolved

Will claims of a "retrieved craft of non-human origin" be confirmed by the US government by the end of the year?

$111K406 tradersResolved
1%

Will Manifold drop to 8,000 or fewer Monthly Active Users by the end of 2023?

$97K35 tradersResolved
100%

Who will be a special guest/speaker at Manifest 2024?

$96K95 tradersResolved

🍫 Will cocoa prices reach $10,000/metric ton in 2024?

$96K72 tradersResolved
99%

Jimmy Kimmel Live back on air by the end of October?

$96K283 tradersResolved
99%

When will Israeli forces enter the Gaza Strip?

$94K100 tradersResolved

Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2025?

$85K157 tradersResolved
1%

Who will be Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives in a week?

$81K132 tradersResolved

Will Manifold drop to 7,000 or fewer Monthly Active Users by the end of 2023?

$63K49 tradersResolved
100%

Will the FED cut rates *before* their scheduled September meeting?

$51K169 tradersResolved
1%

Will anyone in the leaked Houthi War chat be fired/resign over it by the end of April?

$50K205 tradersResolved
2%

In which FOMC meeting will the FED pivot (lower interest rates)?

$48K61 tradersResolved

Will Sergei Shoigu still be the Russian Minister of Defence at the end of July?

$48K111 tradersResolved
99%

Will the second No Kings protest outnumber the first?

$47K296 tradersResolved
99%

If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Manifold, will it mention the market on whether the NYT publishes an article?

$47K35 tradersResolved
0%

Will I manage to squat 3 plates this year?

$46K65 tradersResolved
1%

Will a non-coinflip "Crystal" market with Ṁ1,000,000 of initial liquidity be created by the end of July?

$44K26 tradersResolved
4%

Artemis II Prop Bets

$42K119 tradersResolved

Will the TikTok ban pass the Senate by the end of March?

$41K69 tradersResolved
0%

Will there be a trillionaire by the end of 2026?

$41K135 tradersopen
94%

GPT-5 Release Prop Bets

$40K171 tradersResolved

Who will be the first half-trillionaire?

$40K73 tradersResolved

Will Google pause or remove AI Overviews by the end of May?

$40K161 tradersResolved
2%

What category storm will Hurricane Milton be when it makes landfall in the continental US?

$39K111 tradersResolved

Will the Charity Entrepreneurship contest markets resolve before August?

$38K21 tradersResolved
100%

Will @Dagonet win Leagues across all divisions in July?

$37K20 tradersResolved
1%

🐻 Which bear will be crowned champion of Fat Bear Week 2024?

$37K8 tradersResolved

Will James Medlock take on another Twitter bet by the end of the year?

$33K52 tradersResolved
100%

Will Reddit still be in the top 20 most visited websites at the end of 2023?

$32K138 tradersResolved
99%