Manifold Creator

Simone Romeo

@SimoneRomeo

Markets by Simone Romeo

Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?

$73K57 tradersResolved
4%

Will Teslas drive to buyers house by the end of 2025?

$25K156 tradersResolved
51%

Will Apple buy perplexity by end 2025?

$22K43 tradersResolved
1%

Will scientists successfully revive an extinct species by 2030?

$18K74 tradersResolved
94%

Does Elon Musk have a good impact on Tesla sales?

$17K19 tradersResolved
1%

What will be true about Tesla FSD by end 2025?

$16K53 tradersResolved

Will Europe evolve into a united nation by 2030?

$14K38 tradersopen
2%

Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?

$14K88 tradersopen
42%

Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

$14K53 tradersopen
16%

Will a brain-computer interface user vote and comment on this market by the end of 2025?

$11K28 tradersResolved
1%

Is manifold fair? (Closes on March 1, 2024)

$11K150 tradersResolved
30%

Will Adobe release a generative AI video tool in Adobe Summit 2024?

$9K54 tradersResolved
2%

When will a spot Ethereum ETF be approved?

$8K34 tradersResolved

Will Lex Friedman interview Ilya Sutskever again in by mid 2024?

$7K39 tradersResolved
3%

Grok & Tesla: what will be true by 2025?

$7K28 tradersResolved

Will a virtual reality platform host a live event attended by a sitting head of state by 2025?

$7K21 tradersResolved
3%

Will a country implement Universal Basic Income as a permanent policy by 2030?

$6K53 tradersopen
35%

Will global photovoltaic installations grow from 510 GW in 2023 to 8713 GW in 2030?

$5K27 tradersopen

Will the future be better? [Pick your choices]

$5K34 tradersopen

Will any company successfully develop a therapeutic treatment that rejuvenates healthspan by at least 10 years by 2030?

$5K40 tradersopen
37%

Will OpenAI solve all Erdös problems by 2030?

$4K13 tradersopen
6%

Will lab-grown meat become more popular than traditional meat in any country by 2030?

$4K39 tradersopen
4%

Will an LLM get > 50% on hard problems on LiveCodeBench Pro?

$4K7 tradersResolved
5%

Will we be able to buy a €25k autonomous car that doesn't require driving license in mid 2029 in Italy?

$4K36 tradersopen
10%

In what decade will we have space elevators

$3K28 tradersopen

What kind of cars will be most sold in 2035?

$3K43 tradersopen

Which robotic companies will release a new YouTube Video by the end of April?

$3K4 tradersResolved

Which digital currency will have the highest market capitalization by 2028?

$3K28 tradersopen

Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?

$3K49 tradersResolved
12%

Will China play in the Football world cup semi finals in 2026?

$3K14 tradersResolved
1%

Will a state declare independence from the USA by 2030?

$3K23 tradersopen
10%

What will be the most popular way to interact with a portable digital devices in 2030?

$3K49 tradersopen

In what year will we achieve AGI?

$3K40 tradersopen

What will be the true statements about China's renewables in 2024?

$2K23 tradersResolved

Will China alone install over 8713 GW in 2030?

$2K11 tradersopen
5%

Will an altcoin ETF be approved in the U.S.A. by 2025?

$2K31 tradersResolved
86%

What will Open Interpreter release in April?

$2K7 tradersResolved

Will Tesla FSD lose the Beta label by mid 2024?

$2K19 tradersResolved
95%

Will we see the first crypto trillionaire by 2030?

$2K31 tradersopen

Will we be able to print a smart humanoid bot at home by 2030?

$2K24 tradersopen
23%