Manifold Creator
Simone Romeo
@SimoneRomeo
Markets by Simone Romeo
Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?
$73K57 tradersResolved
4%
Will Teslas drive to buyers house by the end of 2025?
$25K156 tradersResolved
51%
Will Apple buy perplexity by end 2025?
$22K43 tradersResolved
1%
Will scientists successfully revive an extinct species by 2030?
$18K74 tradersResolved
94%
Does Elon Musk have a good impact on Tesla sales?
$17K19 tradersResolved
1%
What will be true about Tesla FSD by end 2025?
$16K53 tradersResolved
—
Will Europe evolve into a united nation by 2030?
$14K38 tradersopen
2%
Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?
$14K88 tradersopen
42%
Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?
$14K53 tradersopen
16%
Will a brain-computer interface user vote and comment on this market by the end of 2025?
$11K28 tradersResolved
1%
Is manifold fair? (Closes on March 1, 2024)
$11K150 tradersResolved
30%
Will Adobe release a generative AI video tool in Adobe Summit 2024?
$9K54 tradersResolved
2%
When will a spot Ethereum ETF be approved?
$8K34 tradersResolved
—
Will Lex Friedman interview Ilya Sutskever again in by mid 2024?
$7K39 tradersResolved
3%
Grok & Tesla: what will be true by 2025?
$7K28 tradersResolved
—
Will a virtual reality platform host a live event attended by a sitting head of state by 2025?
$7K21 tradersResolved
3%
Will a country implement Universal Basic Income as a permanent policy by 2030?
$6K53 tradersopen
35%
Will global photovoltaic installations grow from 510 GW in 2023 to 8713 GW in 2030?
$5K27 tradersopen
—
Will the future be better? [Pick your choices]
$5K34 tradersopen
—
Will any company successfully develop a therapeutic treatment that rejuvenates healthspan by at least 10 years by 2030?
$5K40 tradersopen
37%
Will OpenAI solve all Erdös problems by 2030?
$4K13 tradersopen
6%
Will lab-grown meat become more popular than traditional meat in any country by 2030?
$4K39 tradersopen
4%
Will an LLM get > 50% on hard problems on LiveCodeBench Pro?
$4K7 tradersResolved
5%
Will we be able to buy a €25k autonomous car that doesn't require driving license in mid 2029 in Italy?
$4K36 tradersopen
10%
In what decade will we have space elevators
$3K28 tradersopen
—
What kind of cars will be most sold in 2035?
$3K43 tradersopen
—
Which robotic companies will release a new YouTube Video by the end of April?
$3K4 tradersResolved
—
Which digital currency will have the highest market capitalization by 2028?
$3K28 tradersopen
—
Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?
$3K49 tradersResolved
12%
Will China play in the Football world cup semi finals in 2026?
$3K14 tradersResolved
1%
Will a state declare independence from the USA by 2030?
$3K23 tradersopen
10%
What will be the most popular way to interact with a portable digital devices in 2030?
$3K49 tradersopen
—
In what year will we achieve AGI?
$3K40 tradersopen
—
What will be the true statements about China's renewables in 2024?
$2K23 tradersResolved
—
Will China alone install over 8713 GW in 2030?
$2K11 tradersopen
5%
Will an altcoin ETF be approved in the U.S.A. by 2025?
$2K31 tradersResolved
86%
What will Open Interpreter release in April?
$2K7 tradersResolved
—
Will Tesla FSD lose the Beta label by mid 2024?
$2K19 tradersResolved
95%
Will we see the first crypto trillionaire by 2030?
$2K31 tradersopen
—
Will we be able to print a smart humanoid bot at home by 2030?
$2K24 tradersopen
23%