Manifold Creator
Simon
@Simon74fe
Markets by Simon
Will Harris debate Trump before the 2024 election?
$493K342 tradersResolved
99%
If Trump wins, will RFK Jr. become secretary of health and human services?
$311K225 tradersResolved
99%
Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]
$309K77 tradersopen
96%
Will Biden be nominated via virtual roll call?
$183K94 tradersResolved
3%
Will there be another serious assassination attempt against Trump?
$178K144 tradersResolved
2%
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
$163K155 tradersResolved
4%
Will there be a serious assassination attempt against Harris?
$157K63 tradersResolved
1%
Will SpaceX and xAI merge in 2026?
$149K44 tradersResolved
99%
Trump-Vance vs Harris-Walz on election day?
$111K95 tradersResolved
98%
Which countries will be able to trade sweepstakes before the end of 2025?
$83K29 tradersResolved
—
Will Tim Walz be replaced as the Democratic VP candidate?
$80K89 tradersResolved
2%
When will MNX mainnet launch?
$76K44 tradersopen
—
Will Trump win Florida by >8 points? [election day trading]
$70K38 tradersResolved
98%
What will be the official cause of the Prigozhin plane crash as reported by Russia after their investigation?
$58K325 tradersResolved
—
Outcome of David Budden's Navier-Stokes Lean proof claim
$58K106 tradersResolved
—
Will Anthropic become profitable this year?
$57K147 tradersopen
91%
When will the 'Democratic Nominee 2024' market on Polymarket pay out?
$53K19 tradersResolved
—
Charlie Kirk shooter linked to Groypers?
$51K111 tradersResolved
2%
Who will endorse Kamala Harris for Dem nominee?
$51K60 tradersResolved
—
Which country will the winning club of the 2023/24 UEFA Champions League come from?
$50K63 tradersResolved
—
Will Biden drop out after receiving the nomination?
$47K59 tradersResolved
5%
S&P 500 Up or Down on Monday 9 March? (vs. Friday)
$42K50 tradersResolved
—
Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders
$42K14 tradersResolved
—
Who will attend Jimmy Carter's Funeral?
$41K70 tradersResolved
—
Which coalitions will be feasible after the 2025 German Bundestag election?
$40K45 tradersResolved
—
Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?
$39K115 tradersopen
70%
[Rock-Paper-Scissors] Will [other hand gesture] reach 10%?
$39K5 tradersResolved
—
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) endorse Trump for president?
$38K69 tradersResolved
99%
S&P 500 Up or Down on Tuesday 7 April? (vs. Thursday)
$35K35 tradersResolved
—
Which side will this market trade closer to? (resolves to OPPOSITE)
$34K6 tradersResolved
99%
US Google Trends: Which of these keywords will surpass their 2023 peak in 2024?
$34K85 tradersResolved
—
Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?
$34K73 tradersopen
—
Will any current Congress member join the America Party in 2025?
$31K38 tradersResolved
1%
Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
$31K101 tradersopen
8%
How many traders will this market have?
$30K39 tradersResolved
—
S&P 500 Up or Down on Monday 30 March? (vs. Friday)
$29K22 tradersResolved
—
S&P 500 Up or Down on Monday 23 March? (vs. Friday)
$29K22 tradersResolved
—
Free Ṁ10 per trader [no risk: resolves YES or N/A]
$28K38 tradersResolved
50%
U.S. Presidential Election: Popular Vote and Electoral College Winner
$27K86 tradersResolved
—
Will FTX creditors get back more than 100%?
$27K55 tradersopen
97%