Manifold Creator
Siebe
@Siebe
Markets by Siebe
If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)
$42K209 tradersopen
10%
Will the far-right PVV be part of the next Dutch coalition?
$16K23 tradersResolved
96%
Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?
$13K39 tradersResolved
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Will the SCOTUS make a controversial, decisive decision in the 2024 presidential election? (Like Bush v Gore)
$12K40 tradersResolved
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If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]
$11K46 tradersopen
56%
Where will Claude rank by installs for March 2026, among AI chatbots?
$7K17 tradersResolved
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How many people will report to 'currently have Long Covid' according to the CDC Household Pulse Survey, on Dec 1, 2024?
$6K28 tradersResolved
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Will any medication be approved for Long Covid/PASC in any Western country before 2026?
$6K19 tradersResolved
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Will AI outperform the best human expert on machine learning R&D?
$4K23 tradersopen
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Schedule F: if Trump is elected, will he appoint more than 10,000 people in 2025?
$4K27 tradersResolved
11%
Will Article 7 of the EU be employed against Hungary before 2027?
$4K20 tradersopen
5%
Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?
$3K15 tradersopen
13%
If a Democrat is elected president in 2024, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of their term?
$3K27 tradersResolved
96%
AI wake-up call when?
$3K17 tradersopen
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If Trump/sitting President refuses Supreme Court order, what happens next?
$3K32 tradersopen
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Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term?
$2K31 tradersopen
68%
Will the US see a violent insurgency before 2030?
$2K27 tradersopen
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Is H5N1 spreading in non-dairy cattle?
$2K12 tradersResolved
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Will the Supreme Court constrain Trump's power?
$2K10 tradersResolved
81%
Will the SCOTUS make a controversial, decisive decision in the 2028 presidential election?
$2K13 tradersopen
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Will the Insurrection Act be invoked next presidential term (2025-2029)?
$1K31 tradersopen
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Will the courts strike down Trump's attempt at impoundment of funds?
$1K16 tradersResolved
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Will there be armed conflict between left- and right-wing extremists before 2030? (10v10 & 100v100)
$1K10 tradersopen
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If Biden drops out, whom will he endorse? [Resolved]
$87226 tradersResolved
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Press freedom: will any journalists or media workers be detained in the US in 2025?
$80617 tradersResolved
95%
Will the Netherlands formally withdraw from the EU before 2030?
$6968 tradersopen
2%
Will SCOTUS allow any funding freeze/cancellation?
$6625 tradersResolved
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How much will the NIH spend on Long Covid/PASC in 2025?
$5157 tradersopen
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Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?
$4858 tradersopen
59%
If H5N1 achieves global human-to-human spread, will it be a dud?
$4649 tradersopen
42%
Press Freedom: will SCOTUS make it easier for politicians to sue media for defamation?
$3355 tradersopen
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Will xAI receive preferential treatment* by the Trump administration in 2025?
$1756 tradersResolved
23%
Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030?
$1514 tradersopen
39%
>100K protest in DC before 2026?
$1459 tradersResolved
73%
If Biden drops out & doesn't solely endorse Harris, who will be the Democratic presidential nominee?
$11511 tradersResolved
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If Trump/sitting President refuses a Supreme Court order, what happens next?
$191 tradersResolved
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Will the UCSF AER002 phase 2 pilot trial show statistically significantly positive results?
$152 tradersResolved
38%
[delete] Will the US see a violent insurgency before 2030?
$00 tradersResolved
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Do you watch Manifold's topic leaderboards?
$020 tradersResolved
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What is a better prior?
$046 tradersResolved
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