Manifold Creator
Shump
@Shump
Markets by Shump
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
$262K354 tradersopen
63%
Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?
$109K358 tradersopen
20%
[Higher numbers, more bins] Death Toll in 2023 Israel Hamas war - Palestinian side
$72K129 tradersResolved
—
After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?
$70K150 tradersopen
—
Will the president of Harvard, Claudine Gay, resign over the congressional hearings?
$50K78 tradersResolved
99%
Will AI be able to generate correct images of a chess game in 2024?
$34K205 tradersResolved
9%
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis points
$34K47 tradersResolved
99%
Who will win the "Nobel Prize" in economics?
$29K63 tradersResolved
—
If McCarthy is ousted, will he be reinstated?
$27K54 tradersResolved
2%
Did Israel bomb al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza?
$27K73 tradersResolved
4%
If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
$26K21 tradersopen
10%
Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?
$26K94 tradersopen
12%
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed does not cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points
$24K41 tradersResolved
99%
The most popular Wikipedia article in April 2024? (no exclusions)
$23K37 tradersResolved
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Death Toll in 2023 Israel Hamas War - Israeli Side
$22K83 tradersResolved
—
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?
$22K93 tradersopen
49%
[Short-Fuse] Will Jim Jordan drop out from the house speaker race before the 3rd vote?
$21K48 tradersResolved
1%
Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
$18K168 tradersopen
83%
Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?
$15K115 tradersopen
91%
Will there be an x2 spike in daily active users on EOY 2023?
$15K12 tradersResolved
0%
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Josh Stein elected governor of North Carolina
$13K21 tradersResolved
99%
Will there be a terrorist attack targeting Israelis or Jews outside of Israel in 2023?
$13K79 tradersResolved
88%
Will Elden Ring release a DLC on February 25th (as a leak suggests)?
$12K12 tradersResolved
0%
[More bins, higher] Death Toll in 2023 Israel Hamas War - Israeli Side
$12K39 tradersclosed
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Will SCOTUS overturn the decision of the Colorado Supreme Court that bars Trump from participating in the primary?
$12K21 tradersResolved
100%
Will Pakistan retaliate to Iran's strike?
$12K16 tradersResolved
100%
Will the president of MIT, Sally Kornbluth, resign over the congressional hearings?
$11K25 tradersResolved
1%
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Alexander Stubb elected President of Finland
$11K14 tradersResolved
100%
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
$11K67 tradersopen
61%
Will the resolution of the 100k steps market be controversial?
$11K35 tradersResolved
6%
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least 75 basis points
$10K37 tradersResolved
99%
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Unemployment rate stays below 4%
$10K22 tradersResolved
1%
Will any Democrat vote for empowering McHenry?
$10K40 tradersResolved
1%
Will Netanyahu's coalition collapse by the end of 2024?
$9K50 tradersResolved
2%
Death Toll in 2023 Israel Hamas war - Palestinian side
$9K50 tradersResolved
—
Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?
$9K29 tradersopen
26%
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?
$9K28 tradersResolved
1%
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: African National Congress loses its majority in the South African National Assembly
$9K17 tradersResolved
98%
Matt Yglesias 2024 predictions: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?
$8K28 tradersResolved
98%
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Net electoral college bias continues to favor the GOP
$8K27 tradersResolved
98%