Manifold Creator
Shai
@Shai
Markets by Shai
Will Israel free another living hostage by military means in the next 4 months?
$18K77 tradersResolved
99%
Will Reddit allow users to vote out subreddit moderators?
$14K43 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Gaza strip be part of Egypt by 2026?
$14K28 tradersResolved
1%
Trump reduces tariff on Israel to 0% by May 1st?
$13K107 tradersResolved
1%
Will Billie Eilish come out as transgender by 2025?
$13K42 tradersResolved
1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the most successful independent US presidential candidate in the last 100 years?
$12K36 tradersResolved
1%
Will legacy Blue checks on Twitter be gone by 4/21?
$11K22 tradersResolved
100%
Will Trump or Biden take part in a Twitter/X Space as part of their campaign?
$8K28 tradersResolved
99%
Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?
$5K78 tradersopen
34%
Will Egyptian security forces kill more than 100 Gazan refugees in 2024?
$5K21 tradersResolved
6%
Will the majority of countries that pause funding to UNRWA in 2024 renew the funding in less than a year?
$4K25 tradersResolved
96%
Will construction of a permanent Israeli settlement in Gaza begin by the end of 2025?
$3K27 tradersResolved
2%
Will the @NPR Twitter account be labeled "US state-affiliated media" in June?
$3K22 tradersResolved
1%
Will Sweden keep being a democracy until 2030?
$2K27 tradersopen
97%
Gold missing from Fort Knox? (MAINSTREAM MEDIA EDITION)
$2K16 tradersResolved
3%
Will the New York Times be verified on twitter by May?
$2K22 tradersResolved
95%
Will Egypt open the border for 10,000+ refugees from Gaza during the current war?
$2K22 tradersResolved
15%
If another Forbes 30 under 30 member is arrested for fraud: will it be a woman?
$2K12 tradersResolved
3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu run for the Israeli Knesset next election?
$2K16 tradersopen
89%
Will Israel free another living hostage by military means by 2025?
$1K18 tradersResolved
6%
Will Trump fire or deport more people in his first year as president?
$1K19 tradersResolved
—
Will Syria recognize Israel during Trump's second term?
$1K19 tradersopen
38%
Will Elon Musk's Path of Exile account be banned for account sharing or cheating?
$1K24 tradersResolved
11%
Will the USD to ILS Exchange Rate pass 3.8 this year?
$9849 tradersResolved
88%
Will an LLM be able to solve Raven's Progressive Matrices from an image in 2025?
$62919 tradersResolved
27%
Will any US state lower the minimum drinking age by 2030?
$35815 tradersopen
27%
Will I match with someone I find attractive in my first week of using Tinder?
$24417 tradersResolved
57%
Will UNRWA be disbanded before the creation of a Palestinian state?
$1936 tradersopen
60%
Will Trump fire or deport more people in his first year as president?
$501 tradersResolved
—
Do you want Elon/Trump to succeed at firing lots of federal employees and reducing the deficit?
$041 tradersResolved
—
On Oct. 7th, were there multiple, separate, cases of rape by Gazans?
$027 tradersResolved
—
How many days will Forsen's ban from Twitch last?
$00 tradersResolved
4%