Manifold Creator
Seeker
@Seeker
Markets by Seeker
Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?
$588K1,329 tradersResolved
99%
Will Bitcoin close the year above $65,000?
$86K56 tradersResolved
99%
Will Destiny Reach 800K Subscribers By the End Of January?
$36K19 tradersResolved
0%
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the end of 2024?
$18K49 tradersResolved
1%
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before 2025?
$17K21 tradersResolved
1%
Will Bitcoin close the year above $25,000?
$16K23 tradersResolved
98%
Will Taylor Swift be in attendance at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics?
$15K26 tradersResolved
1%
Will TikTok be available for download via Apple's App Store and Google's play store in the US in June 2024?
$12K26 tradersResolved
99%
Will Bitcoin close the year above $45,000?
$11K25 tradersResolved
99%
Will Kurzgesagt release a video on AI alignment before 1st of August, 2024?
$10K31 tradersResolved
1%
Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2024?
$9K69 tradersResolved
12%
Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2024?
$8K24 tradersResolved
2%
Will sci-fi author Neal Stephenson publish a novel (book) in 2024?
$7K17 tradersResolved
99%
Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1st 2025?
$7K18 tradersResolved
99%
Will Bitcoin close the year above $55,000?
$6K22 tradersResolved
99%
Will a current or former US President be shot at (from a gun) before 2026?
$5K17 tradersResolved
99%
Will Google have the best LLM by EOY 2024?
$5K20 tradersResolved
95%
Will the US government confirm the existence of aliens on Earth before the end of 2024?
$5K17 tradersResolved
1%
Will a current or former President/Prime Minister/Person in change of ANY country be shot at (from a gun) before 2026?
$5K32 tradersResolved
96%
Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2024?
$4K39 tradersResolved
98%
Is there a chess Grand Master (GM) on Manifold who comments here by January end?
$4K9 tradersResolved
0%
Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2024?
$4K73 tradersResolved
15%
Sam Altman will be fired/resign from OpenAI by the end of 2024
$4K29 tradersResolved
3%
Will Wikipedia endorse the lab-leak theory for origins of COVID-19 before 2030?
$4K22 tradersopen
19%
Will Donald Trump tweet on Valentine's Day? (anywhere in the world)
$3K9 tradersResolved
3%
Will Destiny have blue hair on April 21st, 2024?
$3K10 tradersResolved
1%
Will a leading AI organization in Europe be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2024?
$3K19 tradersResolved
7%
Is there a chess International Master (IM) on Manifold who comments here by January end?
$3K8 tradersResolved
100%
Will @IsaacKing defeat me in the leagues this season?
$3K14 tradersResolved
99%
Will there be any terrorist activity that harms civilians in France during the 2024 Olympics?
$2K15 tradersResolved
1%
What will be Destiny's hair color at the end of January 2024?
$2K4 tradersResolved
—
Will Taylor Swift be romantically or sexually involved with Destiny by the end of 2024?
$2K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will Twitter (X) be profitable in 2024?
$2K47 tradersclosed
16%
Will Bitcoin close the year above $35,000?
$2K13 tradersResolved
99%
Will Apple Vision Pros say "Made in China" on them?
$2K9 tradersResolved
0%
Will Donald Trump appear as a guest on Destiny's YouTube channel by the end of 2024?
$2K11 tradersResolved
3%
Will Narendra Modi win the 2024 Indian National Election for the Prime Minister?
$2K11 tradersResolved
98%
META ends 2024 higher than it ended 2023
$1K6 tradersResolved
99%
Will Destiny Reach 900K Subscribers By the End Of February?
$1K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2024?
$1K15 tradersclosed
29%