Manifold Creator
Scott L
@ScottLawrence
Markets by Scott L
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on April 1?
$77K304 tradersResolved
100%
Is LK-99 a high temperature (>77K) superconductor?
$62K81 tradersResolved
1%
Will Scott Alexander endorse a presidential candidate in 2024?
$59K124 tradersResolved
7%
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on March 1?
$56K284 tradersResolved
100%
US hyperinflation by 2030?
$46K38 tradersopen
13%
Military applications of neutrinos by 2050?
$45K34 tradersopen
12%
Will DeSantis announce his presidential candidacy by the end of June?
$36K32 tradersResolved
100%
Will Scott Alexander endorse Joe Biden in 2024?
$32K72 tradersResolved
1%
Will a high-ranking U.S. official endorse "UFOs = aliens" this year?
$31K211 tradersResolved
5%
Will John Fetterman be a U.S. senator on June 1?
$29K12 tradersResolved
100%
Will any Russian civilians die in a drone attack in August?
$28K80 tradersResolved
96%
What is the highest temperature (K) at which LK-99 is a superconductor?
$28K21 tradersopen
3%
Will Dianne Feinstein be in the Senate on June 1st?
$27K16 tradersResolved
100%
Will a ChatGPT-comparable chatbot be available within China at the end of this year?
$27K47 tradersResolved
46%
Will Scott Alexander blog about UFOs this year?
$27K144 tradersResolved
2%
Will Pope Emeritus Benedict survive to 2023?
$21K75 tradersResolved
3%
Will Vladimir Putin be alive on Jan 1st, 2024?
$18K45 tradersResolved
99%
Will any usable open-source chatbot be released this year?
$16K29 tradersResolved
85%
Will any current or former President or VP be indicted or charged, for improper handling of classified material, before 2025?
$16K16 tradersResolved
100%
Will Russia have nuclear weapons in Belarus at the end of 2023?
$15K42 tradersResolved
94%
Will the first NYT article about Manifold mention assassination markets?
$15K19 tradersResolved
100%
Will the U.S. embassy in Sudan be open on July 1st?
$13K6 tradersResolved
0%
Will CGP Grey upload any videos in 2025?
$13K32 tradersResolved
99%
Will @MarkIngraham be banned before May 1st
$12K18 tradersResolved
99%
(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?
$12K36 tradersopen
85%
Will the Wikipedia page for "Turkey" be renamed to "Turkiye" by Jan 1 2025?
$11K57 tradersResolved
1%
Will Dianne Feinstein be a member of the Senate at the end of this year?
$10K29 tradersResolved
0%
Will Scott Alexander endorse Ron DeSantis (for president) in 2024?
$10K33 tradersResolved
1%
Will Manifold stop showing me news articles by Sep 2?
$9K22 tradersResolved
98%
Will Manifold support private messages this year?
$9K28 tradersResolved
1%
Will Kyiv fall before 2024?
$9K27 tradersResolved
1%
What cryptocurrency will have the highest market cap on Jan 1, 2025?
$9K64 tradersResolved
—
Will Biden visit Taiwan in 2023?
$9K44 tradersResolved
2%
Will Scott Alexander endorse Donald Trump (for president) in 2024?
$8K32 tradersResolved
1%
Will Zvi endorse a presidential candidate in 2024?
$8K18 tradersResolved
3%
Will Trump join Manifold this year?
$8K24 tradersResolved
1%
Will CGP Grey upload any videos in 2024?
$8K31 tradersResolved
99%
Will Trump endorse DeSantis (for president)?
$7K30 tradersResolved
1%
Will UFOs be a partisan issue by 2025?
$6K18 tradersResolved
2%
Did Scott Alexander enter his 2023 book review contest?
$6K25 tradersResolved
99%