Manifold Creator
Scott Alexander
@ScottAlexander
Markets by Scott Alexander
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
$12.2M4,463 tradersopen
32%
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
$2.4M2,680 tradersopen
92%
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
$655K618 tradersopen
42%
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
$464K553 tradersopen
43%
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
$205K521 tradersopen
87%
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
$145K385 tradersopen
40%
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
$101K476 tradersopen
92%
In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?
$64K233 tradersopen
50%
"Dating Men In SF" ACX review written by Aella?
$57K96 tradersResolved
1%
Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?
$56K229 tradersResolved
87%
Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?
$41K99 tradersopen
53%
Do more men think about the Roman Empire daily than women?
$41K219 tradersResolved
70%
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
$36K257 tradersopen
65%
Who will win the 2024 ACX Book Review contest?
$33K100 tradersResolved
—
Will the Supreme Court leaker's identify be known by 2023?
$25K96 tradersResolved
1%
Will my upcoming post "Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work" get more than 100 Substack likes?
$18K47 tradersResolved
100%
In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?
$14K188 tradersopen
46%
In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?
$10K145 tradersopen
27%
Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?
$9K83 tradersopen
3%
Which of these interventions will I rate highest on v2 of Biodeterminist's Guide To Parenting?
$9K83 tradersResolved
—
If I review Bruce Fink's "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis", will it get at least 125 likes?
$6K56 tradersResolved
66%
Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?
$6K86 tradersopen
3%
Will my upcoming post "What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?" get more than 100 Substack likes?
$6K42 tradersResolved
98%
Will I update towards a more positive view of auto-scientific-literature-review site Consensus in the next six months?
$4K60 tradersResolved
18%
Will my upcoming post "Microaddictions" get more than 100 Substack likes?
$4K45 tradersResolved
97%
If I review Edward Teach's "Penelope's Dream Of Twenty Geese", will it get at least 125 likes?
$4K52 tradersResolved
42%
If I review Rick Perlstein's "Nixonland", will it get at least 125 likes?
$3K48 tradersResolved
95%
Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?
$3K55 tradersopen
—
Will at least one Congressional candidate contest election results in 2022?
$2K46 tradersResolved
89%
If I review one of Rene Girard's books on mimetic desire, will it get at least 125 likes?
$2K41 tradersResolved
94%
If I review Mark Brinell's "The Search For The Perfect Health System", will it get at least 125 likes?
$2K32 tradersResolved
83%
If I review Vaclav Havel's "The Power Of The Powerless", will it get at least 125 likes?
$1K38 tradersResolved
79%
If I review Joseph Stiglitz's "Whither Socialism", will it get at least 125 likes?
$1K34 tradersResolved
95%
What percentile did the median superforecaster get in the 2023 ACX prediction contest?
$1K17 tradersResolved
69%
In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
$1K42 tradersopen
15%
What percentile did Manifold get in 2023 ACX forecasting contest?
$1K18 tradersResolved
87%
What percentile did Metaculus get in 2023 ACX forecasting contest?
$45210 tradersResolved
84%
How many likes (x 0.5) will I get on my upcoming post "Zounds! It's Zulresso and Zuranolone!"?
$40417 tradersResolved
31%
Will I update towards a more positive view of the Consensus auto-scientific-literature-analysis system in the next six months?
$1001 tradersResolved
20%