Manifold Creator
SG
@SG
Markets by SG
Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?
$823K172 tradersResolved
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Will Robinhood re-add sports markets from Kalshi in 2025?
$818K21 tradersResolved
97%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?
$639K608 tradersResolved
96%
Will Manifold hit 10,000 DAUs in 2024?
$568K55 tradersResolved
1%
New Manifold features launched before June 2025
$342K108 tradersResolved
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Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
$317K948 tradersResolved
1%
Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?
$294K563 tradersResolved
99%
Will cash withdrawals be enabled before August 1st?
$270K138 tradersResolved
1%
Who will earn the most mana at poker night?
$268K18 tradersResolved
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Will Superalignment succeed? (self assessment)
$260K428 tradersResolved
2%
Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be TIME's Person of The Year for 2023?
$248K372 tradersResolved
0%
Are the Mexican alien bodies real? (scientific journal, 2025)
$233K237 tradersResolved
1%
Who stole the painting from the Bet on Love afterparty?
$229K124 tradersResolved
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Chandrayaan 3 to successfully land a rover on the Moon in 2023?
$215K135 tradersResolved
99%
Will Ron DeSantis be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee?
$198K399 tradersResolved
0%
Will my 70yo male relative lose 10 lbs in 2 months with Evolv GLP-1?
$179K130 tradersResolved
65%
China blockades Taiwan in 2025? (media reports)
$176K101 tradersResolved
1%
Manifold features launched in 2026
$169K192 tradersopen
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Limitless token FDV 24 hours after launch
$160K6 tradersResolved
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Will DeepSeek go on Dwarkesh Podcast in 2025?
$155K60 tradersResolved
2%
How many users will get a Manifold subscription before March 1st?
$151K104 tradersResolved
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Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2028?
$151K129 tradersResolved
99%
Will Polymarket launch a stablecoin before 2027?
$146K72 tradersResolved
98%
Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?
$145K112 tradersResolved
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Will there be a high-credibility spurious replication of LK-99 room temp superconductors before 2024?
$131K139 tradersResolved
1%
Which questions will we answer during the Manifold Founders' Panel at Manifest 2024?
$131K44 tradersResolved
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How many predictles will be played on day 1?
$126K43 tradersResolved
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Will private groups be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?
$123K22 tradersResolved
3%
Was Ilya spooked by a capabilities advance?
$121K435 tradersResolved
11%
Will Manifold's Twitter account have 10k followers by Sept. 1st?
$121K104 tradersResolved
1%
Will Elon Musk tweet about Manifold in 2023?
$120K82 tradersResolved
0%
Who will earn the most mana at poker night?
$119K13 tradersResolved
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Total volume on main Super Bowl sweepstakes question?
$118K14 tradersResolved
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Will Kesha represent the US at Eurovision 2026?
$118K30 tradersResolved
1%
How much revenue will Homepage Boosts drive in month 2?
$117K32 tradersResolved
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Top FrontierMath score in 2025?
$117K74 tradersResolved
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Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media?
$116K42 tradersResolved
1%
Will 50+ users buy a loot box before May 20th?
$116K29 tradersResolved
100%
Will a Republican win the 2022 Arizona governor's race?
$115K102 tradersResolved
1%
Who orchestrated JFK's assassination?
$111K240 tradersopen
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