Manifold Creator
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Will OpenAI begin rolling out the new GPT-4o voice mode before July 15th?
$11K32 tradersResolved
99%
Do LLMs experience qualia?
$7K86 tradersopen
32%
Will Claude 3.5 Opus beat OpenAI's best released model on the arena.lmsys.org leaderboard?
$5K50 tradersResolved
5%
Will OpenAI's open source model have 120B params?
$3K17 tradersResolved
99%
Does Claude 3.5 have control vector(s) to increase its capabilities?
$3K31 tradersopen
18%
Will Claude 3.5 Sonnet take the #1 position for any period of time in its first month on the LMSYS leaderboard?
$2K14 tradersResolved
2%
Will Anthropic's reasoning model have visible CoT?
$1K15 tradersResolved
98%
Will OpenAI or Jakub Pachocki explicitly put a statement out saying the $OpenAI scam isn't real within 24 hours?
$1K13 tradersResolved
1%
Will the AI summary resolve this to YES?
$52819 tradersResolved
77%
Is Claude 3.5 Sonnet a distilled or quantized version of a larger model?
$52211 tradersResolved
5%
Will my vibe-coded Kalshi algorithm be profitable?
$40719 tradersopen
35%
Which options will get the lowest and highest percent?
$2889 tradersResolved
—
How will my vibe-coded rewrite of a SoTA genomics program perform?
$26817 tradersResolved
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Will Gemini release a model that outperforms or ties 4o on lmarena (all categories) before Christmas?
$2406 tradersResolved
91%
Will amino acids on Mars have the same chirality as organic Earth amino acids?
$916 tradersopen
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Will Tame Impala release a consumer analog synthesizer in 2024?
$151 tradersResolved
57%